Survivor Philippines Finale - And the Winner is...

You have to love Jeff Probst's recaps.  He is so good at what he does and there is no question that Survivor would not have lasted as long as it has without him.  Will Malcolm and Denise stay strong together or will Malcolm's pact with Lisa and Skupin happen.  Who will win the immunity challenge and who will be sent home.  Will there be a tie or will it be a clear decision.  We are about to find out.

Malcolm and Skupin has an alliance.  Skupin is delusional to think he can beat Malcolm though.  He has a great story, but Malcolm has played the better game.

At the reward challenge the winner gets a huge advantage at the final immunity challenge.  It also confirms that there will be only 8 jury members, thus a final 3.  As expected, Malcolm wins.  He is great at puzzles, but Denise was close and while Skupin was the first to start on his puzzle, he was never close to solving it.  Lisa was doing good for a short time, then fell off.  What will the immunity challenge be and what advantage will Malcolm have.

Lisa and Denise had a talk back at camp about taking out Malcolm.  Lisa like the idea and Skupin likes the option, but isn't as on board.  Once again, Skupin says he can beat Malcolm.  The obvious choice is if either Denise or Malcolm win immunity, that is who Lisa and Skupin go to the end with.  If Skupin or Lisa wins immunity, that is where the choice becomes more on their side. Denise referenced a Penner moment with Malcolm not wanting to commit, but that is only with her.  Malcolm does seem committed to Skupin and Lisa.  Right now the final 3 sounds really promising for Lisa and Skupin, regardless who wins immunity.

Skupin is determined to win the final immunity so that he can create the final 3, instead falling into it.  He also said that him and Lisa don't agree on who should go to the final 3, so obviously that could be bad for Lisa.  Because if he wins immunity and he can't get Lisa to see his side, then he has to convince Malcolm and Denise to vote for Lisa.  My guess is Lisa will stick with Skupin, if it comes down to it and they will go to the end with Malcolm, if Skupin wins immunity.

The Fallen Commrades is a staple in Survivor and it is nice that there were people left that had been with all of them, so nice words could be said about each of them.  It makes for decent filler for the show, but it is one thing that could be cut and make the finale 1.5 hours instead and increase the reunion show to 1.5 hours.

At the immunity challenge, the advantage that Malcolm gets a second chance.  The challenge is to balance a ball on a stick and periodically they add pieces of wood.  Malcolm is the first to drop the ball, but now has the second chance.  Malcolm is really struggling and it falls again.  He is the first out of the challenge.  The rest of them to this point very steady.  Just before the 2nd round end, Denise falls out.  Lisa and Skupin go to the third round.  Both survive round 3, but Lida barely made it.  Skupin wins final immunity as Lisa just couldn't quite outlast him.  Skupin is in the Final 3.

With Skupin in charge, obiviously he will be wanting to take Malcolm.  So now it is time for Lisa and him to have a conversation on it and then to see what Malcolm and Denise say.  Will Malcolm and Denise get back together and force a tie or will Malcolm stick with Skupin.  Will Lisa stay with Skupin or vote with Denise and cause a tie.  I Don't think either of those will happen.  I think that Lisa and Skupin will agree and I think Denise will be the last jury member.

Malcolm and Denise are both plead their case.  Skupin still says that he wants Malcolm, but Lisa doesn't and says she will do what she needs to to make sure he isn't there.

At Tribal Council it was a very dramatic discussion.  Malcolm says that Denise's story trumps his own, but I don't necessarily agree.  I would have been so pleased if Malcolm would have won, but I'm equally as happy with any of the others.  In the end, I think Lisa was the driving force on the decision and Skupin didn't want a tie, although, that may have been better, from a jury perspective.  so now it is down to the final 3 of Skupin, Lisa and Denise and if I were to guess now, based strictly on the editing, Lisa is going to win.  She has had her story told the best, but honestly I will be surprised if she does win.  I do think Denise has a real shot, but I think Skupin does too.  It will be interesting and it will be interesting to see if Lisa's past comes up, because Penner and Skupin know and who knows if Penner has told any other jury members.  Does it make a difference?

"This isn't tree mail, this is tree meal."  I love it!

Why start a fire under a tree?  That just seems irresponsible, but obviously as soon as they walked away, I'm sure there was a crew there to put the fire out.

Now it is time for the final Tribal Council.  Will the jury be bitter or will they go about this the way they should, looking at each of the final 3 for who they are, how they played the game and vote accordingly.

Looking back though, Malcolm's biggest mistake was keeping Denise last episode.

Opening Statements:

Denise: Great Opening statement.  The perfect one IMO.

Lisa: Also a very good opening statement.  Shows vulnerbility, but was confident.

Skupin: Also a pretty good opening statement.

I put Lisa and Skupin close to each other, but Denise was the perfect opening statement.  The positive is all of them were confident and none apologized.  Lisa did express regret for not following her heart and that was obviously referring to Penner, but in the end it was Penner that blew the opportunity.  So going into the questions, I think Denise holds a slight lead, but not a strong one.

Questions:

Artis: Sore loser!  Just made a statement.

carter: Congrats to Lisa and Skupin.  He asked Skupin what his reaction to him getting voted off.

Pete:  Nothing to Skupin direct.

RC: Congrats to Lisa.  Skupin, questioned on her going home.  Nothing to Denise.

Malcolm:  Nailed Denise.  Gave props to Lisa.

Jeff K: I think Lisa answered that great.

Abi: Bitter Betty!  Denise apologizing is not what she was looking for.

Penner:  Great statement and I think Lisa countered the fact that she hid her past great.

After Denise's opening statement, the rest was far from perfect.  Lisa performed the best to the questions.

Jeff - ?, RC - Lisa, Artis - ?, Penner - Denise, Pete - ?, Carter - Skupin, Abi - ?, Malcolm - ?

Lisa
Denise
Skupin
Denise
Denise
Denise

Denise Wins!  The other two had to be for Denise so it wasn't even close.

She did play a great game socially and did survive every trible council.  She was also successful in convincing Skupin and Lisa to vote out Malcolm.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 13 - I Guess My Vote Means Nothing!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, Abby thanks everyone for keeping her and plans to keep up the fake idol thing regardless if they believe it.  Everyone thinks the world of Carter and were sad that he had to go.  Malcolm is worried about Lisa now that she revealed that she would take someone she can beat, instead of the better player.  That is bad for Malcolm and he is watching her now.

While Abby went to get water, code for hide her fake idol, the rest of the players talk about how there is no way Abby has an idol, or she would have played it at TC.  Later, Abby approaches Lisa about how she is at the bottom of the alliance and Lisa is keeping her options opened.

At the reward challenge, Skupin led the whole way, although Malcolm was close and almost won, but Skupin pulled it out.  He got to pick two people to go with him and he picked Malcolm and Lisa.  Abby was ubset, or so she said, and as a parting word said that "I guess my vote doesn't mean anything?"

Denise and Abby had a "fun" afternoon at camp.  Denise loathed listening to Abby go on and on, but she just was nice and let her talk.  To the camera, Denise said if she could take two pins and poke her ears out, she would be happy.  On the reward, they have a great feast of pizza and got to swim with a whale shark.  Then they discussed the game and Malcolm said that his best chance is to sit with Skupin and Lisa.  Skupin is on board, but Lisa only appears it but said she just made a deal and may make another one.  Although she really needs Skupin on her side along with Abby, if Denise doesn't win immunity.  Of course if they play along with Malcolm, then turn on him next, that could work.

In the morning Denise had a big stingy pain.  She has fang marks on her neck.  Lisa & Skupin says a prayer for her, along with everyone there. Abby is kind of happy about it, because it gives her a better chance.

At the immunity challenge, once again Skupin and Malcolm took an early lead, but right before Malcolm got onto the platform, he fell off and had to start over.  Everyone made it to the puzzle section and Denise took the lead on the puzzle and almost got it but it just wasn't right.  In the meantime Malcolm finally gets to the puzzle and makes short work of it and ends up winning.  That gives him the immunity idol and the hidden immunity idol and tonight is the last night he can play it.  So will he choose to protect someone or will he keep it as a souvenier?  With is agreement with Lisa and Skupin, it certainly seems like Denise is a sure thing to go home and if Malcolm is smart he will have Skupin, Abby and Lisa vote Denise and he will vote with Denise for Abby.

Back at camp, they are sitting at the fire and Skupin gets attacked by a spark, but it is ok.  Abby talks to Skupin and Skupin talks to Lisa.
Malcolm tells Denise that he would give her the hidden idol if he felt she needed it, but he was sure that Abby was going home.

At TC, it was pour on Abby again and Abby made some great arguments for keeping her.  She wasn't too smart to keep putting down Skupin, but it doesn't matter anyway.  In the end, Abby was sent home, which was not the play I would have made, but I'm not out there.

The preview didn't show much for the finale on Sunday.

I think Lisa and Skupin made a mistake and I think Malcolm did too.  As I stated above, since he wanted to get Denise out and he didn't give her the idol, then he could have voted with her for Abby, as he did, but instructed Skupin and Lisa to vote for Denise, making them think he was as well.  When Denise would have lost by one vote, she would have naturally known that Malcolm didn't vote for her and she would still vote for him in the finals.  For Lisa and Skupin, this was their only opportunity, because now they will either be going to the final 3 with either Denise or Malcolm or one of them is joining the jury.  I do agree that Abby wouldn't have won, but I don't think Lisa or Skupin have shot against Malcolm or Denise.

So for Lisa and Skupin, they have to hope that Denise doesn't win immunity and Malcolm sticks to their agreement on the vote.  But this time Malcolm has to look bad and vote for Denise as well.  I don't see Denise voting against Malcolm, so if Denise does win immunity, then either Skupin or Lisa will go home.  I'm not sure who would go.  Then the question becomes, is this a final 3 or final 2.  I'm still leaning towards a final 2, but anything can happen.

I see Malcolm will win this game easily, if he is in the finals.  He was part of Tandang when they went from 3 tribes to 2 and I think he would get more votes.  Denise would be tough to beat too, for Lisa and Skupin, but they do stand a better chance against her.  I think Lisa may actually have an edge over Skupin, because I know Penner likes her and Jeff Kent probably wouldn't vote for a returning player.  Artis doesn't like Skupin either.

I like all four left and honestly don't care who wins.  From a game playing perspective, Malcolm deserves to win.  He is good socially, physically and strategically.  Denise is good socially and physically, but I haven't seen a great strategic game.  She has been ok, but not as good as Malcolm.  Skupin and Lisa have been poor strategically, although they both have improved lately.  Lisa is much better than Skupin socially and I think many on the jury like her, but she isn't a physical threat.  But if there is one area that doesn't matter as much, is the physical side.  I'm rooting for Lisa, then Skupin, then Malcolm and lastly Denise, but I will be happy no matter who wins because it has been a great season.  So until Sunday... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines - Episode 12 - Family Time

This is always one of my favorite episodes of the season!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, it was fairly calm and Abby was determined to stay on her game plan.  At the reward challenge everyone got a family member to participate with them.  As expected, everyone was emotional to see their family and Lisa especially.  The challenge consisted of the Survivors throwing muddy bags to their family member who then had to knock down 5 targets and the first one to do it gets to spend the evening with the rest of the tribe.  It was close down to the end but Malcolm's brother won the challenge.  After the challenge of course Jeff says to pick one more and Malcolm picks Lisa, after all she has been through emotionally and then someone tells Malcolm to ask for another.  Jeff allows it and Malcolm picks Skupin.  Of course his plan is to show love to his alliance mates.

While the family members are back at camp, Lisa's brother Justice convinces her that she needs to play this game and blindside Malcolm to get him out.  Skupin is on board with it as well and the four of them have a prayer session asking God to bless their plan, if it is His will.  The others are sitting near the fire and thought who knew they would come together over Jesus.  Malcolm did express concern that Justice might talk some sense into Lisa, but was still pretty confident.

At the immunity challenge the Survivors had to cross a bamboo balance beam, use a hook to get 3 bags out of the water and then build a stick out of pieces of wood and string.  The first to push over their target and drop their flag wins.  Everyone but Denise got through the balance beam fairly quickly, but Denise quickly caught up on the bag portion of the challenge.  Carter and Malcolm were the first to get their bags with Lisa close behind and it was a race to the end.  Malcolm pulled out the win though which ruined Lisa/Skupin's plan.

Back at camp the discussion was whether it should be Carter or Abby and Carter even came up on Malcolm and Skupin talking about it.  Carter respected the game but of course wanted to stay.  Abby meanwhile was making no friends as her and Denise had another confrontation and it seemed like everyone wanted to vote here out.

At Tribal Council there was talk about the obvious of Carter and Abby and both stated why they should stay.  In the end Abby stayed and Carter went, which considering the remaining players, that was probably the best move.

In the preview they show Abby and Lisa joining up again and that would also include Skupin, but will it work.  The trick is that Malcolm will play his idol next week and if he wins the immunity challenge, my guess is he would give the idol to Denise, to protect her, which is a very smart move on his part.  If he doesn't win immunity then obviously he would want Denise to win it.  If you are Skupin, Abby or Lisa, assuming they do decide to switch it up again, then you want to target Denise at the next TC and then hope Malcolm doesn't win immunity at the final 4, then you vote him out.  The only other possible scenario I see is that Abby gets voted out at the next TC.  I don't see Malcolm or Denise turning on Skupin and Lisa, although it also would be a smart move to break them up, but I don't think they will.  From the editing tonight, I think they are editing Lisa for the win.  I think they will succeed and vote Denise out next, then Malcolm and Lisa will beat Skupin and Abby in the finals.  But I can see that anyone but Abby can win this game.

Everyone is talking about final 3 and I too was thinking that, but as I mentioned in my last too posts, it could be final 2 and I'm thinking that is where we are going.  I think every season, except maybe season 2, there have been three tribal councils in the final episode.  We are at 5 players going into next Thursday's episode and then 4 players going into the final on Sunday.  If you have 3 tribal councils then two more people will join the jury and there will be a final two.

To wrap up on how I think each should play, to benefit themselves the best, assuming I'm right about a final 2:

Malcolm's best bet is to make a move and split up Lisa and Skupin, so at 4 there isn't a tie.  He will need Denise to do that, along with Abby.  I think he should target Lisa.  Then he needs to target Denise, as she is his biggest threat and then he needs to win immunity and take Abby over Skupin.

Denise's best bet is to play exactly the way I laid out for Malcolm except taking Malcolm out after Lisa and taking Abby to the end, if she wins immunity. Although if the final 2 is Malcolm and Denise, that would be a great final 2.

Abby's best plan is to do whatever she can to stay in the game.  The previews show her doing that.  If she can make it to the final 3, then she is guaranteed a final 2 spot, IMO.  Because if the others don't want her in the final 2 or 3, then she will be the next to go.

Skupin's best plan is to play with Lisa and Abby and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  He needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if he wants to win.  I don't think he would beat Lisa.

Lisa's best plan is to play with Abby and Skupin and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  She needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if she wants to guarantee her win.

Now will it play out any of those ways, only time will tell.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines - Episode 11 - Sunny Side Up and Sucking Eggs

After tribal council Abby is obviously still upset and the next morning Skupin and her have a talk.  Denise and Penner overheard and thought it was funny.  Then Malcolm and Abby go to tree mail and there are envelopes and Abby's first thought was it is letters from home and starts to cry again.  Malcolm comforts here and then she realizes it is for the Survivor Auction.  Abby goes in with a plan and that is to save the money and use it for something that will help her out.

At the auction there were lots of good food that several won.  Carter's first successful bid gave him a choice between food for him or rice and beans for the tribe.  He did the honorable thing and chose the rice and beans.  The second to last item was what Abby was waiting for, the advantage in the next challenge and immediately bid all her money, thus winning the advantage, which allowed her a 1 and 3 shot of winning it.  The final item Carter won again and it again was for the tribe.  They had 60 seconds to all partake in the food.

Back at camp everyone was happy and then Abby and Penner start talking and Abby expects Penner to apologize for how he and the others treated her at the TC.  He didn't, other than saying he was sorry it was her turn.  I thought he handled the situation very well.  Then Abby goes off and reads note.  She adds an element to it by saying she as found another immunity idol, when she was talking to Malcolm and then at the challenge she does a pretty wise thing and says there are two parts to the note.  The first part related to the challenge and the unsaid part was eluding to an idol.  Of course the second part wasn't really there, but she knew Jeff wouldn't play along if she said it.  So she played it well.

At the challenge, there was a wrinkle where at the start of each round everyone answered a question and if they got in wrong they had to carry 5% of their body weight with them.  Round one Lisa and Denise got it wrong.  4 of the 5 would advance and Lisa was the one that didn't.  The next round, Denise, Carter and Skupin all missed the question and added 5% weight, making Denise have 10% of her weight.  The top two advanced and Carter and Penner advanced.  Carter missed the question before the final round, so he was wear 10% now.  The final part of the challenge was different in that they had to untie knots where the previous two rounds they were clipped to a rope maze.  Abby took a quick lead and Carter was right behind her, but in the end, Abby won the immunity.

With Abby safe at TC, Penner was the next obvious choice of the final 4 alliance of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa.  Lisa was conflicted and told Penner what was happening and he was flabbergasted, but he knew that Lisa would stick to her word.  He talked to Skupin and it seemed like he may flip and I think he would have if Lisa would have too.  And at TC it came down to Penner and Denise and Penner got voted out 4-3.

The preview for next week shows it is the family challenge and Malcolm's brother talks to much and Malcolm worries it may hurt his game.

So with six remaining, will the final four alliance stand or will Skupin and Lisa switch to Carter and Abby.

I think Denise and Malcolm have the best shot of winning, if they are in the finals.  Which of the two will win is tough, but Denise is a better talker, so she may have an edge.

I think Skupin has a descent shot if he makes it.

Carter could pull out a win, but it depends who he is sitting with.  I think he beats Abby or Lisa, but I'm not sure he beats Skupin.

If Lisa makes it to the end, then I can see Penner bringing up the Facts of Life part of her past and I think the jury would hold that against her, which I think is stupid, but it is what it is.  Also while she has played a pretty honest game, she hasn't played a great game.  It really depends on who she is with.  She beats Abby, but I'm not sure about anyone else.

I don't think Abby has a chance to win, but then again if she makes it to the end and it is not by luck, then she may win.  Of course it depends on who she is sitting with.

The question still remains is it a final 2 or 3.  Either a final 2 with 9 jurors or a final 3 with 8.  I suppose there is the chance they may do something crazy and do a final 4 with 7 juror, but I doubt it.  My guess is it will be a final 3 and there will be only 3 more episodes remaining.  Next week, the following Wednesday and then the finale on Sunday.    Either way it should be fun, so until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 10 - Social Grace of a Mack Truck!

Abby and Pete discuss how they lost control and Abby couldn't understand why Tandang wasn't strong.  She is obviously not a rocket scientist.  Pete said they fell asleep at the wheel, but I think they just expected the speed bumps to stick with them instead of slowing them down.  Skupin says that he is going to control this game for himself, as much as possible.  He and Denise say they should all be final 6, then the best ones win.

Lisa and Abby talk and Lisa basically says she doesn't trust Abby and it will be hard to stick with them.  She would rather be sixth and feel good.

At the reward challenge it was a race to get three of your teams discs flipped over all at once before the next team.  It was close but on the last round Skupin pulled an Abby an flipped the wrong one giving the red team the win.  Carter, Pete, Abby and Malcolm get a spa reward and the rest go back to camp.

The reward was very nice, lots of nice food and a bath and massages, but not to carry on like Abby, that's all there is to say about that, since they didn't talk about strategy.  When they arrived back at camp, Abby wouldn't shut up about how great the reward was.  They asked Carter what he liked and Abby didn't even let him finish.  Then to top it all off Abby said she is done cooking for the rest of the time there.  She expects to eat, but not cook.  Denise is looking forward to sending her home.

Skupin and Malcolm talk final 4 and Malcolm was determined to make a final 4 that day.  Skupin talks to Lisa but she isn't sure and says she prefers Penner, but Penner won't commit when they talk.  So Malcolm, Lisa, Denise and Skupin agree final 4 and it will be interesting to see if it lasts.  There will be two groups of two when they get to the final four.

At the immunity challenge it was challenging, but the two they want out didn't get past round 1 so it didn't matter.  It came down to Skupin, Carter and Denise and Skupin had a lead until the last knot, but Carter caught up and finished the challenge first.

What they should do is split the vote, just in case Abby gets a wild hare to save Pete and that is exactly what Penner suggests.  Pete and Abby do their best to get someone to flip and take out Malcolm.  Skupin was the only one that considered it, but I think the combination of the plan coming out to Malcolm and the beating the Abby took at Tribal Council convinced him to stay with his word to Malcolm.

At Trbial Council Abby got hit by that Mack Truck.  Even Jeff gave her a earful.  Denise is a great communicator and she tried her best to help Abby understand, but Abby couldn't keep her mouth shut.  It will be a mistake to take Denise to the final 3 or 2, because she could easily win.

In the preview it shows Penner upset at Lisa, because she made the final 4 plan with Malcolm, but that is entirely Penner's fault.  Abby says she is going to fight.  Even if she can pull out an immunity, her chances are slim.  If the final 4 of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa holds strong, then Penner's only option is to align with Carter and Abby, but that still leaves them down one.  Can he guilt Lisa to flipping, maybe.  Here is how I see the game playing out from here:

Abby will go home next unless she wins immunity.  With the final 6, that is the perfect time to blindside Malcolm, but will Skupin and Lisa break their word to do it.  I don't think they want to be sitting next to either Malcolm or Denise at the final 2 or 3.  My gut says that Lisa and Skupin will stay with the alliance and they will target either Penner or Carter next, depending on immunity wins.  When they get down to five it only makes sense to take out the last person, leaving the final 4.  The reason is at that point it will be tough to get Malcolm out, but they could take out Denise, if Malcolm doesn't give her the idol or she doesn't win immunity.  But that is risky too, because at least if the final 4 stay together, then Malcolm can only use his idol to reach final 3 and then it comes down to a tie, unless Malcolm decides to betray Denise.

There are still a lot of variables and really at 7 is the best time to make the move.  Penner, Skupin, Carter and Abby blindside Malcolm.  Then they take out Denise, if she doesn't win immunity.  Then Skupin, Lisa and Abby blindside Penner or Carter and ride to the final 3.  That is Skupin's (and Lisa's) best play.

Penner and Carter have the toughest road, but if they can get Skupin to join them, then they could have a shot.  Malcolm and Denise would be tough to beat and I think the only person that may legitimately have a chance to beat them might be Lisa, but I doubt it.

What would be interesting is to have a Skupin, Penner and Abby final 3.  would they give Abby the win over the two returning players or who would win between Penner and Skupin.

So many possibilities to ponder before next week, so until then... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 9 - The Big Mouth Sinks the Ship

Lisa starts off the show fighting her inner demons and beating herself up over her move.  Penner does an amazing job of connecting with her and comforting her.  Many of the other players also are very kind to her, but she still wants to stay loyal to Tandang.

At the reward challenge, it works out that Tandang, minus Abby who sat out, got put together and the rest got put together into two teams.  Skupin and Penner are the first to go and Skupin gets a quick lead, but not by much.  When they get to the part where they are to search for the bags of balls, Penner decides to stay and uncover all 4 bags so the rest of his team would just have to pick them up and go.  The strategy pays off and Penner's team wins.

The reward was awesome. They got to deliver toys and schools supplies to a nearby village and it touched all of them.  Malcolm taught kids in Malaysia for a year and then left that to be a bar tender.  This experience made him wonder why he left that.  Penner had a great time playing with the kids.

At camp, Pete, Artis and Abby talk to Lisa about keeping Tandang strong and going forward, but Abby opens her mouth and calls Lisa naive and gullible.  Of course that doesn't make Lisa happy nor Pete.

At the immunity challenge, each member had to get six balls to balance on a paddle, one at a time by rolling it up the handle in getting into one of the six marked places.  Skupin and Pete both were neck and neck through the first 4 balls and no one else was even close.  Skupin got his fifth ball and Pete started to panic and lost two of the balls he already had.  Skupin won easily from there.

Back at camp, Penner talks to Lisa about switching to vote with them and then he talks to Skupin.  Mike is on board with it but wants to confirm with Lisa, since they have been strong since the beginning.  It still doesn't seem that Lisa wants to switch.  Meanwhile Malcolm, Denise and Carter agree that it has to be Artis, because they figured Abby may give Pete the idol and she wouldn't have given it to Artis.

At Tribal Council, Lisa starts off with a long speech on how she tried to play the game but basically got poop blown back at her.  She did say that she received grace from many people when she returned and Abby asked if she gave her grace.  Lisa responded that the non-Tandang members gave more grace than the Tandang members.  Then Abby sealed their fate by saying that she was worried most about Lisa switching and Lisa replied that maybe it is time for a decision.  Of course that decision was made and Artis went home in a 5-4 vote.  Lisa stayed true but Skupin switched.

The previews show that Lisa wants to switch now but Abby pulls the guilt trip on her and breakups have never been easy for Lisa.  Also Mike talks to Lisa and has a plan for final four.  What could that plan be?

If I'm Skupin, I would take Lisa, Penner and Carter.  I say that because if they get Penner and Carter out and stick with Denise and Malcolm, that would put a tie at the final 4.  The bigger problem is the idols.  My guess is Abby won't give it up to Pete, especially since it appears the numbers won't be in their favor, so as long as Pete doesn't win immunity, my guess is he will be the next to go.  If Pete wins immunity, they will target Abby, who of course has the idol and would probably play it.  That means the 5 others need to split the vote, but that also means one of them would go home.  Who would that be?  If I was playing it, Skupin, Penner and Lisa should agree to split the votes with Denise and Malcolm voting Abby and thinking Carter will vote Abby too, Abby and Pete probably voting Lisa or Penner and Penner, Lisa, Skupin and Carter should vote out Malcolm and blindside him, since he has the idol.  The problem with that is Lisa probably wouldn't go for it, since Malcolm was so nice to her about calling him out on the idol, so it may have to be Denise.

If Pete or Abby don't win immunity then you split the vote 3-3 between them and it doesn't matter which one plays the idol, the other will go home and the idol will be out.

After that, Skupin, Lisa, Penner and Carter should team up and get out Denise and Malcolm, although, Penner and Carter could stick together, I don't think they are as tight as Denise and Malcolm.

There are lots of possibilities and at this point anything can happen.  What we don't know for sure is if it will be a final 2 or final 3.  It will either be a final 2 with 9 jury members or final 3 with 8 jury members, neither of which have been done before.

So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 8 - The Facts of Life

At the start of the show, Penner is of course worried that he is next and he is correct and talks to Skupin and says that he has to win immunity and then Skupin is on the block.  Lisa and Skupin are talking and Lisa spills the beans that Malcolm has the idol and she talks about getting rid of him on a blindside at some point.

At the reward challenge the divide them into two teams and it is a race into the water to release puzzle pieces and then dig for a key before assembling the puzzle.  The yellow team starts off fast and takes an early lead since the blue team sent Abby first and she wasn't too fast.  Carter catches up to a slow Lisa to give the blue team the lead but ultimately Denise takes the lead back when Skupin has trouble getting the last set of puzzle pieces.  Penner makes short work of the puzzle and the yellow team wins the reward.  Penner of course talks about turning on Pete and taking him out.  Lisa likes the plan but thinks it is better to stay with the old Tandang tribe.

Back at camp, Pete and Abby are talking and Pete says after Penner goes, he would like to target Jeff and keep Skupin around.

At the Immunity Challenge, the top three players to untie their puzzle pieces advance to the next round.  Pete, Penner and Jeff are those three.  The next round is assembling the puzzle and Pete and Jeff get off to a quick lead over Penner, but Penner then starts to get it and makes a huge run and ends up winning immunity. Of course Penner has a respectable celebration.

Back at Camp, Lisa goes into game mode again and tells Pete about Malcolm's idol and says that they need to blindside him.  Pete agrees and that was the plan until Malcolm and Pete start talking and Pete confronts Malcolm about the idol.  Malcolm denies it and Pete throws Lisa under the bus.  Meanwhile Penner gets a group to go after Pete and Pete now targets Jeff.

At Tribal Council, the fun happens.  Jeff starts talking to Skupin asking if he was worried when Penner won immunity and of course he said yes.  The conversation steers towards Malcolm when Lisa confesses that she threw Malcolm under the bus.  The talk continues about how Malcolm was a target and then he pulls out the idol and says he is playing it and someone will be getting the brunt of it (smart play on his part).  Jeff then asks if anyone else has an idol they want to tell everyone about and Abby opens her mouth and then shows everyone (that was dumb in my opinion).  She says the idol will be used to keep the alliance strong.  Lisa points out that she played both sides but never left the original alliance and that is why she told them about Malcolm's idol.  Penner then rallies the troops to exercise his plan.

After they all vote and Jeff comes back and asks if anyone wants to play their idol, no one does.  Malcolm was very smart here too, as he put enough fear that he will use it that they don't vote for him, then holds onto the idol.  In the end Abby gets one vote, Jeff gets 5 and Pete gets 4.

Jeff's closing statement as classic about how he has made so much money at baseball but the 1 million from this game was something he really wanted (actually $600,000 after Obama takes his share) and he is not happy.  I think he is just pissed the game didn't go his way, not that he is being a sore loser.

In the preview it shows Lisa playing again and thinking of now switching away from the original Tandang alliance.  Will it happen?  We will find out.

So now that all hell has broken loose in all the alliances.  Pete was very close to going home, Abby was an idiot and Malcolm played it well, but now is a target just because of the idol, it leaves the final 9 people in an interesting place.  I don't think any alliance is safe, other than Malcolm and Denise and Peter, Abby and Artis, and that leave 4 people that can go where is best for them.  Malcolm will probably have a difficult time trusting Lisa now, but if he gets Penner and Skupin on his side and string Lisa or Carter along, then they can take Pete out next.  it is going to be a fun episode next week and obviously with this week's developments, you can pretty much disregard my prediction last week.  So until then... the Tribe has spoken.