Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - Week 7 - Cohesive is a tough word

First off Ralph has sunk to a new low.  He doesn't even know what Cohesive means.  Someone get that man a dictionary!


Redemption Island shows Matt getting annoyed by Stephanie's constant chatter and apparently God wanted Matt to continue.  I understand the reason why Stephanie selected Matt to go first, so she would have a better opportunity to play off his mistakes, but as the challenge started out, they both made a match.  After that, Matt continued to play a good game, missing only one match if I remember correctly.  Stephanie was doomed and it wouldn't have mattered if she had gone first or not.  The reason I think you elect to go first is because it is the first to five and if everything goes equally for both players, then the first person would win, since they would get there first.


After the challenge, I like how Stephanie kept playing the game, by getting in Zapatera's ear about Sarita as well as telling Rob to watch out.


Matt is now 5-0 on Redemption Island, but the previews make it seem like there may be trouble in paradise.


Back at Camp, Phillip wants some crunchy rice but the girls say it is for Rob.  This of course irritates Phillip.  Rob gets a kick out of it when he returns.  Rob is ready to get rid of Phillip, but I'm glad he is still there.


At Zapatera, it looks like David is in trouble because of his move last episode, but in the end, they finally agree with his reasoning and decide to take out Sarita.  Something they should have done last episode.  Now they are down 5-6 going into the merge.


At the challenge, which was great, Ometepe starts off with a lead after retrieving the first ball, but they have trouble with the next two balls giving Zapatera a lead.  Zapatera is the first to get to the end to make the balls in the basket, but just can't do it.  For the second challenge in a row, Grant proves to be the king of catching and throwing balls.  I guess that football background is still fresh, where Steve's is a little more rusty.  In a very close end, Ometepe eeks out a win.


Surprising enough Sarita is the one running her mouth and lobbying around camp and David is cool about it.  Not only that Sarita is over confident and doesn't even bring her stuff to TC.  When you know it is either him or you, why would you not bring your stuff, even if you are pretty sure it is him?  She isn't a smart player and like I said, she should have already been gone.  Now she has a chance to get right back into the game.


At the reward challenge, they had a great feast, and as normal, Rob is always thinking and sure enough finds the clue to the idol, which he already has.  This time no one sees him take it and put it in his back pocket.  Later during his interview, he throws it in the volcano.  Classic!  


At Tribal Council, it is pretty much David vs. Sarita and David has the last laugh.  He stays, but certainly is in trouble in his tribe.


The previews show that there will be a merge and that poses some problems for Rob, since Phillip is a loose canon and probably will flip.  On the other hand, David's best choice is to flip to Rob's side, thus nullifying Phillip.  That leave the person that will return from Redemption Island.  The previews say the winner of this last RI challenge will return into the game.  I'm assuming that they will bring them back at the challenge, if that is where they announce the merge.  Maybe they will have everyone attend the RI challenge instead of just two from each tribe, but that would be crowded, so I don't think that will be the case.  It is always possible they may wait until after the Tribal Council for the next episode and bring them back then.


In merging with 11, plus the 1 person from RI, it is clear that they will have a final 3 and 9 jury members, meaning the person voted out next will become the first jury member, so I think the person returning from RI will either go back with those that watch the challenge to the new camp or it will happen at the challenge.  I'm leaning towards the challenge based on what the previews show.


So let's look at the remaining players:


Rob - If he can survive the next couple episodes, he will be in the finals but he has his work cut out for him.  The thing he does have going for him is that he has a great social game and it appears that he has everyone on his tribe on his side, except for Phillip.  Andrea could be a wildcard too.  Rob also needs to think about individual immunity threats and Grant is probably the biggest threat there.


Andrea - She seems to be with the other girls, but I'm not so sure.  Given the right opportunity, she could flip.  If Matt comes back in the game, it will be interesting to see if she actually welcomes him back or if she does as she said last episode, and may not realign with him.


Grant - The only thing that he has going for him is he could run the table in the challenges.  He also seems to get along with everyone, so he could get jury votes, since he isn't the mastermind on the tribe. I think Rob needs to take him out as soon as he can, once he has the numbers on his side.


Natalie - I can see Rob taking her to the end, because I don't think anyone will vote for her.


Ashley - I can also see Rob taking her for the same reason as Natalie.


Phillip - Now we get to see the Lion and Gorilla in action.  The question is will Phillip be successful in ousting Rob? Will Zapatera take him in.  For Phillip's sake, he better play it cool or he will find himself on the outs with both tribes.  Phillip is probably not going to go on an immunity threat and there is no way anyone from Ometepe will vote for him in the finals, so if Rob can keep the number and Phillip til the end, along with one of his girls, that would be his best move.


Steve - While he appears to be the strategic leader for Zapatera, I'm not so sure he will stick around long.  He better hope Sarita comes back and Phillip flips, to have a chance.  If he does get the numbers on his side, I think he could win in the finals against the remaining Zapatera tribe members.


Mike - Another possible immunity threat, although up to this point hasn't been great in challenges.  I think he has a fairly good standing in the tribe, and like Steve, could be tough to beat in the finals against the rest of his tribe.


Ralph - I think Ralph has a real opportunity to make it to the end.  He still has the idol, but if Rob remembers, then Ralph may be the first target, or at least an early target.  Otherwise I don't see him to be a big threat and will stick around.


Julie - Strong woman and will do well in challenges, but I don't think she has enough to win this game.  


David - David's best move will be to flip.  Now the question is does he flip to Rob's alliance with the girls or try to get Phillip and Andrea on his side.  If I'm Rob, I would bring David in and get rid of Grant ASAP.  


Matt - If the injury to his foot that is talked about in the previews is bad enough, then he wouldn't be a huge immunity threat, but if it isn't that bad, he very well could be.  He is 5-0 at RI and personally I am rooting for him to re-enter the game.  The question also remains will he trust Rob again or will he try to find another alliance.  If Matt, Andrea, Phillip and David join forces, you can write Matt the $1,000,000 check right now.  I think Matt or Grant are the only two legitimate competition of Rob in the finals, should Rob make it that far.


Sarita - Not good in the challenges, but may catch a break if there is any balance or physicality to the last RI challenge.  I fully expect Matt to win, but that surely just screwed him.  For Zapatera, they have to hope that she wins and reenters the game.


So two immunity idols are still out there and no one knows that Rob has it and Russell pretty much outed Ralph as having it.  The next couple episodes will be key for the key players in the game and how far they get.  If Rob can survive 3 more episode, I predict he will get to the finals and probably win.


So that all for this week, so until next time... the Tribe has spoken.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - Week 6 - Stealth!

First let me start off by saying this was classic Phillip week.  This man is a gold mine for TV and a loose canon to have on your tribe.  If I was Ometepe, I would get rid of him ASAP.


It was interesting to see Andrea's reaction to Krista's bonding with Matt and now how she really doesn't want him to come back. I'm surprised it took her that long to see him as a threat, because the fact that he has now won 4 duels in a row to stay alive, he is most certainly a threat.  But let's back track and look at the challenge.  Krista started out strong and got the 3 bags back first and had a huge lead in the maze, but was being too careful, especially at first.  Matt went at it with a little more aggression and it paid off, as he came from behind and won.  I thought it was an extremely nice gesture of Krista to leave Matt her Bible, since that will help comfort him.  


Back at Ometepe, Phillip was being himself.  First he calmly asks the girls to watch the fire and then later comes back with a furry and really lights into Natalie and Ashley.  I love Rob's comments on how he agrees with Phillip, but needs to reel him in, because a divided tribe is not what they need.  Rob is showing why he has been asked back for a fourth time.  He is a smart player, with the exception of at the reward, which I will get to later.  


At Zapatera, Sarita is complaining about a sore tooth or gums and how she thinks she may have some bacteria in there.  Ralph even gets the fact that you don't go probing around with a filthy stick in your mouth.  What I don't understand is why didn't she just swish salt water, several times a day. That would help clean it out and probably hurt like hell in the process, but probably was the best choice. 


At the challenge, Sarita wastes no time sitting out and I think that David and Stephanie hit the nail on the head when they analyzed why she sat out.  This challenge wasn't even close and Grant is the the man.  There was no way that Zapatera was going to win that challenge, regardless of who they put out there.  Ometepe wins the challenge and a reward, which is a nice picnic lunch.  Rob spots the clue, but Grant grabs it and this is where Rob makes the mistake by immediately saying, let's go check out the scenery.  Phillip of course catches on and spoils the party and now Phillip has some very useful information he can use later.  Rob and Grant should have just waited until they got back to camp or everyone was done eating and he could have been less obvious about it.  Will it hurt Rob, who knows, but it certainly didn't help.


At Tribal Council, David stuck his neck out for Stephanie and it didn't help and now he has put himself in a lot of trouble.  I fully expect he will be the next to go from Zapatera.  I personally think they should have kept Stephanie, but now they just have to hope that Matt beats her at RI.  I would love to see her come back into the game and join forces with Rob and co.


Going forward, I think Rob needs to get rid of Phillip, for the main reason I've been saying, he is a loose cannon and while he is trust worthy, he doesn't understand the game and will hurt Rob in the end.  But if Rob can find a way to keep him around, I don't see Philip beating Rob in then end.  I also think post merge, Rob needs to take Grant out soon, because Grant will beat Rob in the finals and is an individual immunity threat. 


Zapatera is a sinking ship and I personally don't think they will come out on top.  


That's it for this week, so until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - Week 5 - You've Got To Hustle to Make a Buck!

Another good episode tonight.  


Starting with Redemption Island, this challenge favored Matt due to his strength, because the longer Kristina went, the more tired she got.  I do love how Matt engaged Rob on why he was voted out, during the challenge.  Rob gave a diplomatic answer, but I really don't see the harm in telling him the truth.  Matt's chances of running the table are slim.  Sure it could happen, but I would have to say unlikely.  I also like how Stephanie used that as a segue to offer her and Krista's votes to their side. Little good that may do now, but it was a bold move and one that was smart.


Phillip and Andrea bonded a little, not like I think that will help either of them at this point, but you never know.  It does give Phillip a little more stability, should they both make it to a merge.  Phillip once again provided some great one liners.  "I would give up half a donut for a massage" to be returned with "I wouldn't give him a massage for a dozen donuts".  


The challenge was made for Rob, as he is a great leader and great at puzzles. Could David had won it for Zapatera, we will never know, but I think Stephanie did a pretty good job directing them.  She wasn't that far off on the puzzle, but would David have been as good of a caller.  I'm not sure.  So Omatepe wins their first challenge (Yes they did win when Russell was voted out, but does that really count).  


Upon returning to camp and feasting on donuts, Grant first discovers the clue to the idol and then Rob sees it and they do a nice little maneuver to get the clue away from the tribe.  Rob then digs up the previous clue and swaps them.  What I couldn't tell is if the idol was with the old clue.  If so, that begs the question, why would you hide the idol, once you have found it?  To me there is absolutely no logic to doing so, because if the circumstances aren't right, you may not be able to get away to get it, or worse case, someone else could stumble upon it.  To me, you keep it on you at all times, especially when wearing nice baggy shorts with lots of pockets like Rob has. 


The previews made it look like Stephanie and Krista were going to take a page out of Russell's play book and cause some mischief in camp, but that turned out to be a fake out.  Instead they didn't do anything. They knew it was one of them and Krista let it rip at Tribal Council.  Surprising that Stephanie was relatively quiet at TC.


Let's step back a minute and analyze the conversation at Zapatera before Tribal where David and Sarita butt heads.  I can see that tribe starting to crumble and going on a losing streak.  I'm not saying throwing the challenge put them in the spiral, because they won the next challenge and I don't buy the whole Karma thing like Julie does.  They are just going to have a rude awakening in front of them.  


Personally I hope Stephanie can survive for a while, but the odds are against her.  


At Tribal Council, I found it interesting how Krista paired everyone up:


Ralph and Sarita
Steve and Julie
Steve and Mike
I don't know where that leaves David
And the obvious that Krista and Stephanie could make a solid 4.


It seems like Steve is in the best position, having Mike and Julie on his side, but if Stephanie can work on David and if David and Sarita can put their past behind them, I could see a powerful foursome in David, Sarita, Ralph and Stephanie.  Will it happen, probably not.


So now Krista gets to face off with Matt at Redemption Island and from the preview, it looks as if Matt is in trouble.  Is it a trick or will Matt finally lose?  This time I think Matt will lose.


So let's analyze the tribes a little:


Ometepe, seems that Rob and Grant are pretty solid and Ashley and Natalie are close to them.  Andrea doesn't really want to be part of them, but realizes she has to be.  Phillip is on his own, with Andrea secretly on his side, at least partially.  If Rob doesn't screw it up and especially if they can go on a winning streak, they should be good and Rob will have a strong group going into the Merge. If Stephanie can survive until the merge, Rob has got a solid 5.  What I can see is that Rob will want to get rid of Grant, once the merge comes, because he is a physical threat.  If Phillip wasn't such a wild card, I would agree that Rob should keep him around, but he can't be trusted, so Phillip needs to go next.  Although the show won't be as good without him.


Zapatera I have already discussed a little, based on Krista's observations.  I don't really have anything else to add at this point.


5 people have been voted out, 3 of which are completely gone, that leaves 13 in the game.  The Merge usually happens around 9 or 10 remaining and of course we will have someone reentering the game.  My guess is that with 9 remaining, the person who remains on Redemption Island will return to the game and will go back to camp with the 4 people that come to watch, the rest of the two tribes will be informed to meet at either a neutral location or to one of the camps, due to the merge.  If they do a final 3, then the first person voted out will be a jury member, which is unlikely since they usually have more than 7 jury members with a final 3, which makes me think they will do a final 2 and the first jury member won't happen until the episode following the one where the person re-enters the game.


So that would only leave two to four more Redemption Island challenges before the merge.


That's a lot to think about and I look forward to seeing how it plays out.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - Week 4 - BooHooHoo!

Russell comes to Redemption Island and talks a lot of smack, but can't back it up.  Matt beats him at the challenge and continues on he quest to return to this game. Afterwards, Russell breaks down and  cries, then goes at it with Ralph when Ralph "bluffs" by telling him he has the idol and fakes like he is going to show it to him but doesn't.  Phillip and Kristina went for Ometepe and Ralph and Sarita went for Zapatera.  


While Phillip and Kristina were gone, Rob organized a Royalty Treatment game and beach time.  He then said he having some stomach issues and used it as an excuse to find the idol, which he did.  Later, when returning to camp Phillip thinks he can use the information to persuade Rob keep Kristina longer, which was a joke.   The man really is clueless, but he makes for great TV.  


The challenge was your typical dig to find, and assemble things to get to the end and it started out fairly even but Zapatera eventually built a big enough lead that Ometepe couldn't come back from it.  To cap off their win, Ralph does his rooster impersonation.


Rob takes control again and decides that Kristina should go but to make everyone think that she may have the idol, he once again has them split the votes.  This was a brilliant move, because really either way it went, Phillip or Kristina was going and the only concern for Rob would have been if Phillip goes home, can he trust his tribe any longer, but that didn't happen and Kristina joins Matt on Redemption Island.


I think Rob is playing a good game, but he needs to be careful.  If I was him, I would have given in and voted Phillip, but he could have still said let's split the votes and flush Kristina's idol out, if she has it and send Phillip to RI and his tribe would have been happier.  I think they would do better in challenges, because Phillip has not been great there.  But with the previews, it appears that Rob is rethinking his alliance and that Phillip may be more valuable than he thought.  We'll see if that comes to reality or not.


Also on the previews, we see some splintering of alliances, or at least tribal friction, when Stephanie decides to play Russell's game of sabotaging the tribe. It should be interesting to see how that goes down.


Overall, I like RI, but what I don't like is that as long as it is there, there will only be one other challenge and it will be harder to get to know the people that remain in the game.  So we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.  


So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - Week 3 - It should just said the idol is hidden somewhere.

Let's start off with Redemption Island and the fact that both tribes got to send two representatives to watch the challenge.  First off I would have loved them to do a swap after the challenge and send them to each other's tribe, but that didn't happen, instead they just got to observe.  In the challenge, Francesca got off to an early lead but had trouble getting the last key.  Matt on the other hand took forever to get a stick built that would even work, but once he did, he quickly got the first two keys.  The final key, which was the furthest away, proved to be a challenge for both players.  In the end, Matt had what it took and pulled out the victory, sending Francesca to the Ponderosa. 


When the observers returned to camp, Steve told Russell that Francesca won and then as soon as Russell walked away, told the rest of the tribe that Matt won.  It was just a move to mess with his head and I thought it was great.  Shortly thereafter Steve brought up the idea of throwing the challenge and voting Russell out.  Pretty much the alliance of 6 was on board but Julie was the one that didn't want to throw it, but ended up they did.


At the challenge, it was pretty obvious that Zapatera was throwing the challenge and Russell knew it.  So Rob and company won easily.


Back at camp Rob tells the camera that he is looking for the immunity idol this time and has keen enough eyes to spot the clue when Phillip sits on one of their chairs and it looks like the chair is unstable.  Rob asks Phillip to get up so Rob can fix it and Rob grabs the clue.  But when he examines the clue, he has no idea where it is talking about.  Wisely he hides the clue in a tree so no one else will find it.


At Zapatera, Stephanie and Russell work on Julie and almost convince her to flip to their side, but in the end she doesn't pull a Tyson and stays true to her alliance forcing a 3 way tie between Ralph, Russell and Stephanie.  In the revote, Russell gets the most votes and he joins Matt at Redemption Island.


So to throw a challenge or not, especially this early in the game, is a very risky move.  As stated, numbers are what you like going into a merge, so you can pick the other tribe off, but as Russell proved during his first season, you can get to the end, even when you are the minority.  It will be interesting to see how things are around camp going forward, but if the tribe continues to work well in challenges, they are still the physically stronger tribe and may win more challenges.   Knowing Russell's past, I think I would have agreed to go along with Steve in this case. 


Russell is good at challenges though and he is smart, so I could easily see him beating Matt and for the sake of the show, I hope Russell does stick around at RI for at least a couple weeks.  Maybe he will even be the one that comes back.  I do hope that Rob and Russell get to square off against each other, whether at RI or back in the game.  With that said, I'm not sure I want to see either of them win.


So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.