Survivor Philippines Finale - And the Winner is...

You have to love Jeff Probst's recaps.  He is so good at what he does and there is no question that Survivor would not have lasted as long as it has without him.  Will Malcolm and Denise stay strong together or will Malcolm's pact with Lisa and Skupin happen.  Who will win the immunity challenge and who will be sent home.  Will there be a tie or will it be a clear decision.  We are about to find out.

Malcolm and Skupin has an alliance.  Skupin is delusional to think he can beat Malcolm though.  He has a great story, but Malcolm has played the better game.

At the reward challenge the winner gets a huge advantage at the final immunity challenge.  It also confirms that there will be only 8 jury members, thus a final 3.  As expected, Malcolm wins.  He is great at puzzles, but Denise was close and while Skupin was the first to start on his puzzle, he was never close to solving it.  Lisa was doing good for a short time, then fell off.  What will the immunity challenge be and what advantage will Malcolm have.

Lisa and Denise had a talk back at camp about taking out Malcolm.  Lisa like the idea and Skupin likes the option, but isn't as on board.  Once again, Skupin says he can beat Malcolm.  The obvious choice is if either Denise or Malcolm win immunity, that is who Lisa and Skupin go to the end with.  If Skupin or Lisa wins immunity, that is where the choice becomes more on their side. Denise referenced a Penner moment with Malcolm not wanting to commit, but that is only with her.  Malcolm does seem committed to Skupin and Lisa.  Right now the final 3 sounds really promising for Lisa and Skupin, regardless who wins immunity.

Skupin is determined to win the final immunity so that he can create the final 3, instead falling into it.  He also said that him and Lisa don't agree on who should go to the final 3, so obviously that could be bad for Lisa.  Because if he wins immunity and he can't get Lisa to see his side, then he has to convince Malcolm and Denise to vote for Lisa.  My guess is Lisa will stick with Skupin, if it comes down to it and they will go to the end with Malcolm, if Skupin wins immunity.

The Fallen Commrades is a staple in Survivor and it is nice that there were people left that had been with all of them, so nice words could be said about each of them.  It makes for decent filler for the show, but it is one thing that could be cut and make the finale 1.5 hours instead and increase the reunion show to 1.5 hours.

At the immunity challenge, the advantage that Malcolm gets a second chance.  The challenge is to balance a ball on a stick and periodically they add pieces of wood.  Malcolm is the first to drop the ball, but now has the second chance.  Malcolm is really struggling and it falls again.  He is the first out of the challenge.  The rest of them to this point very steady.  Just before the 2nd round end, Denise falls out.  Lisa and Skupin go to the third round.  Both survive round 3, but Lida barely made it.  Skupin wins final immunity as Lisa just couldn't quite outlast him.  Skupin is in the Final 3.

With Skupin in charge, obiviously he will be wanting to take Malcolm.  So now it is time for Lisa and him to have a conversation on it and then to see what Malcolm and Denise say.  Will Malcolm and Denise get back together and force a tie or will Malcolm stick with Skupin.  Will Lisa stay with Skupin or vote with Denise and cause a tie.  I Don't think either of those will happen.  I think that Lisa and Skupin will agree and I think Denise will be the last jury member.

Malcolm and Denise are both plead their case.  Skupin still says that he wants Malcolm, but Lisa doesn't and says she will do what she needs to to make sure he isn't there.

At Tribal Council it was a very dramatic discussion.  Malcolm says that Denise's story trumps his own, but I don't necessarily agree.  I would have been so pleased if Malcolm would have won, but I'm equally as happy with any of the others.  In the end, I think Lisa was the driving force on the decision and Skupin didn't want a tie, although, that may have been better, from a jury perspective.  so now it is down to the final 3 of Skupin, Lisa and Denise and if I were to guess now, based strictly on the editing, Lisa is going to win.  She has had her story told the best, but honestly I will be surprised if she does win.  I do think Denise has a real shot, but I think Skupin does too.  It will be interesting and it will be interesting to see if Lisa's past comes up, because Penner and Skupin know and who knows if Penner has told any other jury members.  Does it make a difference?

"This isn't tree mail, this is tree meal."  I love it!

Why start a fire under a tree?  That just seems irresponsible, but obviously as soon as they walked away, I'm sure there was a crew there to put the fire out.

Now it is time for the final Tribal Council.  Will the jury be bitter or will they go about this the way they should, looking at each of the final 3 for who they are, how they played the game and vote accordingly.

Looking back though, Malcolm's biggest mistake was keeping Denise last episode.

Opening Statements:

Denise: Great Opening statement.  The perfect one IMO.

Lisa: Also a very good opening statement.  Shows vulnerbility, but was confident.

Skupin: Also a pretty good opening statement.

I put Lisa and Skupin close to each other, but Denise was the perfect opening statement.  The positive is all of them were confident and none apologized.  Lisa did express regret for not following her heart and that was obviously referring to Penner, but in the end it was Penner that blew the opportunity.  So going into the questions, I think Denise holds a slight lead, but not a strong one.

Questions:

Artis: Sore loser!  Just made a statement.

carter: Congrats to Lisa and Skupin.  He asked Skupin what his reaction to him getting voted off.

Pete:  Nothing to Skupin direct.

RC: Congrats to Lisa.  Skupin, questioned on her going home.  Nothing to Denise.

Malcolm:  Nailed Denise.  Gave props to Lisa.

Jeff K: I think Lisa answered that great.

Abi: Bitter Betty!  Denise apologizing is not what she was looking for.

Penner:  Great statement and I think Lisa countered the fact that she hid her past great.

After Denise's opening statement, the rest was far from perfect.  Lisa performed the best to the questions.

Jeff - ?, RC - Lisa, Artis - ?, Penner - Denise, Pete - ?, Carter - Skupin, Abi - ?, Malcolm - ?

Lisa
Denise
Skupin
Denise
Denise
Denise

Denise Wins!  The other two had to be for Denise so it wasn't even close.

She did play a great game socially and did survive every trible council.  She was also successful in convincing Skupin and Lisa to vote out Malcolm.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 13 - I Guess My Vote Means Nothing!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, Abby thanks everyone for keeping her and plans to keep up the fake idol thing regardless if they believe it.  Everyone thinks the world of Carter and were sad that he had to go.  Malcolm is worried about Lisa now that she revealed that she would take someone she can beat, instead of the better player.  That is bad for Malcolm and he is watching her now.

While Abby went to get water, code for hide her fake idol, the rest of the players talk about how there is no way Abby has an idol, or she would have played it at TC.  Later, Abby approaches Lisa about how she is at the bottom of the alliance and Lisa is keeping her options opened.

At the reward challenge, Skupin led the whole way, although Malcolm was close and almost won, but Skupin pulled it out.  He got to pick two people to go with him and he picked Malcolm and Lisa.  Abby was ubset, or so she said, and as a parting word said that "I guess my vote doesn't mean anything?"

Denise and Abby had a "fun" afternoon at camp.  Denise loathed listening to Abby go on and on, but she just was nice and let her talk.  To the camera, Denise said if she could take two pins and poke her ears out, she would be happy.  On the reward, they have a great feast of pizza and got to swim with a whale shark.  Then they discussed the game and Malcolm said that his best chance is to sit with Skupin and Lisa.  Skupin is on board, but Lisa only appears it but said she just made a deal and may make another one.  Although she really needs Skupin on her side along with Abby, if Denise doesn't win immunity.  Of course if they play along with Malcolm, then turn on him next, that could work.

In the morning Denise had a big stingy pain.  She has fang marks on her neck.  Lisa & Skupin says a prayer for her, along with everyone there. Abby is kind of happy about it, because it gives her a better chance.

At the immunity challenge, once again Skupin and Malcolm took an early lead, but right before Malcolm got onto the platform, he fell off and had to start over.  Everyone made it to the puzzle section and Denise took the lead on the puzzle and almost got it but it just wasn't right.  In the meantime Malcolm finally gets to the puzzle and makes short work of it and ends up winning.  That gives him the immunity idol and the hidden immunity idol and tonight is the last night he can play it.  So will he choose to protect someone or will he keep it as a souvenier?  With is agreement with Lisa and Skupin, it certainly seems like Denise is a sure thing to go home and if Malcolm is smart he will have Skupin, Abby and Lisa vote Denise and he will vote with Denise for Abby.

Back at camp, they are sitting at the fire and Skupin gets attacked by a spark, but it is ok.  Abby talks to Skupin and Skupin talks to Lisa.
Malcolm tells Denise that he would give her the hidden idol if he felt she needed it, but he was sure that Abby was going home.

At TC, it was pour on Abby again and Abby made some great arguments for keeping her.  She wasn't too smart to keep putting down Skupin, but it doesn't matter anyway.  In the end, Abby was sent home, which was not the play I would have made, but I'm not out there.

The preview didn't show much for the finale on Sunday.

I think Lisa and Skupin made a mistake and I think Malcolm did too.  As I stated above, since he wanted to get Denise out and he didn't give her the idol, then he could have voted with her for Abby, as he did, but instructed Skupin and Lisa to vote for Denise, making them think he was as well.  When Denise would have lost by one vote, she would have naturally known that Malcolm didn't vote for her and she would still vote for him in the finals.  For Lisa and Skupin, this was their only opportunity, because now they will either be going to the final 3 with either Denise or Malcolm or one of them is joining the jury.  I do agree that Abby wouldn't have won, but I don't think Lisa or Skupin have shot against Malcolm or Denise.

So for Lisa and Skupin, they have to hope that Denise doesn't win immunity and Malcolm sticks to their agreement on the vote.  But this time Malcolm has to look bad and vote for Denise as well.  I don't see Denise voting against Malcolm, so if Denise does win immunity, then either Skupin or Lisa will go home.  I'm not sure who would go.  Then the question becomes, is this a final 3 or final 2.  I'm still leaning towards a final 2, but anything can happen.

I see Malcolm will win this game easily, if he is in the finals.  He was part of Tandang when they went from 3 tribes to 2 and I think he would get more votes.  Denise would be tough to beat too, for Lisa and Skupin, but they do stand a better chance against her.  I think Lisa may actually have an edge over Skupin, because I know Penner likes her and Jeff Kent probably wouldn't vote for a returning player.  Artis doesn't like Skupin either.

I like all four left and honestly don't care who wins.  From a game playing perspective, Malcolm deserves to win.  He is good socially, physically and strategically.  Denise is good socially and physically, but I haven't seen a great strategic game.  She has been ok, but not as good as Malcolm.  Skupin and Lisa have been poor strategically, although they both have improved lately.  Lisa is much better than Skupin socially and I think many on the jury like her, but she isn't a physical threat.  But if there is one area that doesn't matter as much, is the physical side.  I'm rooting for Lisa, then Skupin, then Malcolm and lastly Denise, but I will be happy no matter who wins because it has been a great season.  So until Sunday... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines - Episode 12 - Family Time

This is always one of my favorite episodes of the season!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, it was fairly calm and Abby was determined to stay on her game plan.  At the reward challenge everyone got a family member to participate with them.  As expected, everyone was emotional to see their family and Lisa especially.  The challenge consisted of the Survivors throwing muddy bags to their family member who then had to knock down 5 targets and the first one to do it gets to spend the evening with the rest of the tribe.  It was close down to the end but Malcolm's brother won the challenge.  After the challenge of course Jeff says to pick one more and Malcolm picks Lisa, after all she has been through emotionally and then someone tells Malcolm to ask for another.  Jeff allows it and Malcolm picks Skupin.  Of course his plan is to show love to his alliance mates.

While the family members are back at camp, Lisa's brother Justice convinces her that she needs to play this game and blindside Malcolm to get him out.  Skupin is on board with it as well and the four of them have a prayer session asking God to bless their plan, if it is His will.  The others are sitting near the fire and thought who knew they would come together over Jesus.  Malcolm did express concern that Justice might talk some sense into Lisa, but was still pretty confident.

At the immunity challenge the Survivors had to cross a bamboo balance beam, use a hook to get 3 bags out of the water and then build a stick out of pieces of wood and string.  The first to push over their target and drop their flag wins.  Everyone but Denise got through the balance beam fairly quickly, but Denise quickly caught up on the bag portion of the challenge.  Carter and Malcolm were the first to get their bags with Lisa close behind and it was a race to the end.  Malcolm pulled out the win though which ruined Lisa/Skupin's plan.

Back at camp the discussion was whether it should be Carter or Abby and Carter even came up on Malcolm and Skupin talking about it.  Carter respected the game but of course wanted to stay.  Abby meanwhile was making no friends as her and Denise had another confrontation and it seemed like everyone wanted to vote here out.

At Tribal Council there was talk about the obvious of Carter and Abby and both stated why they should stay.  In the end Abby stayed and Carter went, which considering the remaining players, that was probably the best move.

In the preview they show Abby and Lisa joining up again and that would also include Skupin, but will it work.  The trick is that Malcolm will play his idol next week and if he wins the immunity challenge, my guess is he would give the idol to Denise, to protect her, which is a very smart move on his part.  If he doesn't win immunity then obviously he would want Denise to win it.  If you are Skupin, Abby or Lisa, assuming they do decide to switch it up again, then you want to target Denise at the next TC and then hope Malcolm doesn't win immunity at the final 4, then you vote him out.  The only other possible scenario I see is that Abby gets voted out at the next TC.  I don't see Malcolm or Denise turning on Skupin and Lisa, although it also would be a smart move to break them up, but I don't think they will.  From the editing tonight, I think they are editing Lisa for the win.  I think they will succeed and vote Denise out next, then Malcolm and Lisa will beat Skupin and Abby in the finals.  But I can see that anyone but Abby can win this game.

Everyone is talking about final 3 and I too was thinking that, but as I mentioned in my last too posts, it could be final 2 and I'm thinking that is where we are going.  I think every season, except maybe season 2, there have been three tribal councils in the final episode.  We are at 5 players going into next Thursday's episode and then 4 players going into the final on Sunday.  If you have 3 tribal councils then two more people will join the jury and there will be a final two.

To wrap up on how I think each should play, to benefit themselves the best, assuming I'm right about a final 2:

Malcolm's best bet is to make a move and split up Lisa and Skupin, so at 4 there isn't a tie.  He will need Denise to do that, along with Abby.  I think he should target Lisa.  Then he needs to target Denise, as she is his biggest threat and then he needs to win immunity and take Abby over Skupin.

Denise's best bet is to play exactly the way I laid out for Malcolm except taking Malcolm out after Lisa and taking Abby to the end, if she wins immunity. Although if the final 2 is Malcolm and Denise, that would be a great final 2.

Abby's best plan is to do whatever she can to stay in the game.  The previews show her doing that.  If she can make it to the final 3, then she is guaranteed a final 2 spot, IMO.  Because if the others don't want her in the final 2 or 3, then she will be the next to go.

Skupin's best plan is to play with Lisa and Abby and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  He needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if he wants to win.  I don't think he would beat Lisa.

Lisa's best plan is to play with Abby and Skupin and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  She needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if she wants to guarantee her win.

Now will it play out any of those ways, only time will tell.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.