Survivor Philippines - Episode 12 - Family Time

This is always one of my favorite episodes of the season!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, it was fairly calm and Abby was determined to stay on her game plan.  At the reward challenge everyone got a family member to participate with them.  As expected, everyone was emotional to see their family and Lisa especially.  The challenge consisted of the Survivors throwing muddy bags to their family member who then had to knock down 5 targets and the first one to do it gets to spend the evening with the rest of the tribe.  It was close down to the end but Malcolm's brother won the challenge.  After the challenge of course Jeff says to pick one more and Malcolm picks Lisa, after all she has been through emotionally and then someone tells Malcolm to ask for another.  Jeff allows it and Malcolm picks Skupin.  Of course his plan is to show love to his alliance mates.

While the family members are back at camp, Lisa's brother Justice convinces her that she needs to play this game and blindside Malcolm to get him out.  Skupin is on board with it as well and the four of them have a prayer session asking God to bless their plan, if it is His will.  The others are sitting near the fire and thought who knew they would come together over Jesus.  Malcolm did express concern that Justice might talk some sense into Lisa, but was still pretty confident.

At the immunity challenge the Survivors had to cross a bamboo balance beam, use a hook to get 3 bags out of the water and then build a stick out of pieces of wood and string.  The first to push over their target and drop their flag wins.  Everyone but Denise got through the balance beam fairly quickly, but Denise quickly caught up on the bag portion of the challenge.  Carter and Malcolm were the first to get their bags with Lisa close behind and it was a race to the end.  Malcolm pulled out the win though which ruined Lisa/Skupin's plan.

Back at camp the discussion was whether it should be Carter or Abby and Carter even came up on Malcolm and Skupin talking about it.  Carter respected the game but of course wanted to stay.  Abby meanwhile was making no friends as her and Denise had another confrontation and it seemed like everyone wanted to vote here out.

At Tribal Council there was talk about the obvious of Carter and Abby and both stated why they should stay.  In the end Abby stayed and Carter went, which considering the remaining players, that was probably the best move.

In the preview they show Abby and Lisa joining up again and that would also include Skupin, but will it work.  The trick is that Malcolm will play his idol next week and if he wins the immunity challenge, my guess is he would give the idol to Denise, to protect her, which is a very smart move on his part.  If he doesn't win immunity then obviously he would want Denise to win it.  If you are Skupin, Abby or Lisa, assuming they do decide to switch it up again, then you want to target Denise at the next TC and then hope Malcolm doesn't win immunity at the final 4, then you vote him out.  The only other possible scenario I see is that Abby gets voted out at the next TC.  I don't see Malcolm or Denise turning on Skupin and Lisa, although it also would be a smart move to break them up, but I don't think they will.  From the editing tonight, I think they are editing Lisa for the win.  I think they will succeed and vote Denise out next, then Malcolm and Lisa will beat Skupin and Abby in the finals.  But I can see that anyone but Abby can win this game.

Everyone is talking about final 3 and I too was thinking that, but as I mentioned in my last too posts, it could be final 2 and I'm thinking that is where we are going.  I think every season, except maybe season 2, there have been three tribal councils in the final episode.  We are at 5 players going into next Thursday's episode and then 4 players going into the final on Sunday.  If you have 3 tribal councils then two more people will join the jury and there will be a final two.

To wrap up on how I think each should play, to benefit themselves the best, assuming I'm right about a final 2:

Malcolm's best bet is to make a move and split up Lisa and Skupin, so at 4 there isn't a tie.  He will need Denise to do that, along with Abby.  I think he should target Lisa.  Then he needs to target Denise, as she is his biggest threat and then he needs to win immunity and take Abby over Skupin.

Denise's best bet is to play exactly the way I laid out for Malcolm except taking Malcolm out after Lisa and taking Abby to the end, if she wins immunity. Although if the final 2 is Malcolm and Denise, that would be a great final 2.

Abby's best plan is to do whatever she can to stay in the game.  The previews show her doing that.  If she can make it to the final 3, then she is guaranteed a final 2 spot, IMO.  Because if the others don't want her in the final 2 or 3, then she will be the next to go.

Skupin's best plan is to play with Lisa and Abby and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  He needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if he wants to win.  I don't think he would beat Lisa.

Lisa's best plan is to play with Abby and Skupin and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  She needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if she wants to guarantee her win.

Now will it play out any of those ways, only time will tell.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.