Survivor Philippines Finale - And the Winner is...

You have to love Jeff Probst's recaps.  He is so good at what he does and there is no question that Survivor would not have lasted as long as it has without him.  Will Malcolm and Denise stay strong together or will Malcolm's pact with Lisa and Skupin happen.  Who will win the immunity challenge and who will be sent home.  Will there be a tie or will it be a clear decision.  We are about to find out.

Malcolm and Skupin has an alliance.  Skupin is delusional to think he can beat Malcolm though.  He has a great story, but Malcolm has played the better game.

At the reward challenge the winner gets a huge advantage at the final immunity challenge.  It also confirms that there will be only 8 jury members, thus a final 3.  As expected, Malcolm wins.  He is great at puzzles, but Denise was close and while Skupin was the first to start on his puzzle, he was never close to solving it.  Lisa was doing good for a short time, then fell off.  What will the immunity challenge be and what advantage will Malcolm have.

Lisa and Denise had a talk back at camp about taking out Malcolm.  Lisa like the idea and Skupin likes the option, but isn't as on board.  Once again, Skupin says he can beat Malcolm.  The obvious choice is if either Denise or Malcolm win immunity, that is who Lisa and Skupin go to the end with.  If Skupin or Lisa wins immunity, that is where the choice becomes more on their side. Denise referenced a Penner moment with Malcolm not wanting to commit, but that is only with her.  Malcolm does seem committed to Skupin and Lisa.  Right now the final 3 sounds really promising for Lisa and Skupin, regardless who wins immunity.

Skupin is determined to win the final immunity so that he can create the final 3, instead falling into it.  He also said that him and Lisa don't agree on who should go to the final 3, so obviously that could be bad for Lisa.  Because if he wins immunity and he can't get Lisa to see his side, then he has to convince Malcolm and Denise to vote for Lisa.  My guess is Lisa will stick with Skupin, if it comes down to it and they will go to the end with Malcolm, if Skupin wins immunity.

The Fallen Commrades is a staple in Survivor and it is nice that there were people left that had been with all of them, so nice words could be said about each of them.  It makes for decent filler for the show, but it is one thing that could be cut and make the finale 1.5 hours instead and increase the reunion show to 1.5 hours.

At the immunity challenge, the advantage that Malcolm gets a second chance.  The challenge is to balance a ball on a stick and periodically they add pieces of wood.  Malcolm is the first to drop the ball, but now has the second chance.  Malcolm is really struggling and it falls again.  He is the first out of the challenge.  The rest of them to this point very steady.  Just before the 2nd round end, Denise falls out.  Lisa and Skupin go to the third round.  Both survive round 3, but Lida barely made it.  Skupin wins final immunity as Lisa just couldn't quite outlast him.  Skupin is in the Final 3.

With Skupin in charge, obiviously he will be wanting to take Malcolm.  So now it is time for Lisa and him to have a conversation on it and then to see what Malcolm and Denise say.  Will Malcolm and Denise get back together and force a tie or will Malcolm stick with Skupin.  Will Lisa stay with Skupin or vote with Denise and cause a tie.  I Don't think either of those will happen.  I think that Lisa and Skupin will agree and I think Denise will be the last jury member.

Malcolm and Denise are both plead their case.  Skupin still says that he wants Malcolm, but Lisa doesn't and says she will do what she needs to to make sure he isn't there.

At Tribal Council it was a very dramatic discussion.  Malcolm says that Denise's story trumps his own, but I don't necessarily agree.  I would have been so pleased if Malcolm would have won, but I'm equally as happy with any of the others.  In the end, I think Lisa was the driving force on the decision and Skupin didn't want a tie, although, that may have been better, from a jury perspective.  so now it is down to the final 3 of Skupin, Lisa and Denise and if I were to guess now, based strictly on the editing, Lisa is going to win.  She has had her story told the best, but honestly I will be surprised if she does win.  I do think Denise has a real shot, but I think Skupin does too.  It will be interesting and it will be interesting to see if Lisa's past comes up, because Penner and Skupin know and who knows if Penner has told any other jury members.  Does it make a difference?

"This isn't tree mail, this is tree meal."  I love it!

Why start a fire under a tree?  That just seems irresponsible, but obviously as soon as they walked away, I'm sure there was a crew there to put the fire out.

Now it is time for the final Tribal Council.  Will the jury be bitter or will they go about this the way they should, looking at each of the final 3 for who they are, how they played the game and vote accordingly.

Looking back though, Malcolm's biggest mistake was keeping Denise last episode.

Opening Statements:

Denise: Great Opening statement.  The perfect one IMO.

Lisa: Also a very good opening statement.  Shows vulnerbility, but was confident.

Skupin: Also a pretty good opening statement.

I put Lisa and Skupin close to each other, but Denise was the perfect opening statement.  The positive is all of them were confident and none apologized.  Lisa did express regret for not following her heart and that was obviously referring to Penner, but in the end it was Penner that blew the opportunity.  So going into the questions, I think Denise holds a slight lead, but not a strong one.

Questions:

Artis: Sore loser!  Just made a statement.

carter: Congrats to Lisa and Skupin.  He asked Skupin what his reaction to him getting voted off.

Pete:  Nothing to Skupin direct.

RC: Congrats to Lisa.  Skupin, questioned on her going home.  Nothing to Denise.

Malcolm:  Nailed Denise.  Gave props to Lisa.

Jeff K: I think Lisa answered that great.

Abi: Bitter Betty!  Denise apologizing is not what she was looking for.

Penner:  Great statement and I think Lisa countered the fact that she hid her past great.

After Denise's opening statement, the rest was far from perfect.  Lisa performed the best to the questions.

Jeff - ?, RC - Lisa, Artis - ?, Penner - Denise, Pete - ?, Carter - Skupin, Abi - ?, Malcolm - ?

Lisa
Denise
Skupin
Denise
Denise
Denise

Denise Wins!  The other two had to be for Denise so it wasn't even close.

She did play a great game socially and did survive every trible council.  She was also successful in convincing Skupin and Lisa to vote out Malcolm.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 13 - I Guess My Vote Means Nothing!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, Abby thanks everyone for keeping her and plans to keep up the fake idol thing regardless if they believe it.  Everyone thinks the world of Carter and were sad that he had to go.  Malcolm is worried about Lisa now that she revealed that she would take someone she can beat, instead of the better player.  That is bad for Malcolm and he is watching her now.

While Abby went to get water, code for hide her fake idol, the rest of the players talk about how there is no way Abby has an idol, or she would have played it at TC.  Later, Abby approaches Lisa about how she is at the bottom of the alliance and Lisa is keeping her options opened.

At the reward challenge, Skupin led the whole way, although Malcolm was close and almost won, but Skupin pulled it out.  He got to pick two people to go with him and he picked Malcolm and Lisa.  Abby was ubset, or so she said, and as a parting word said that "I guess my vote doesn't mean anything?"

Denise and Abby had a "fun" afternoon at camp.  Denise loathed listening to Abby go on and on, but she just was nice and let her talk.  To the camera, Denise said if she could take two pins and poke her ears out, she would be happy.  On the reward, they have a great feast of pizza and got to swim with a whale shark.  Then they discussed the game and Malcolm said that his best chance is to sit with Skupin and Lisa.  Skupin is on board, but Lisa only appears it but said she just made a deal and may make another one.  Although she really needs Skupin on her side along with Abby, if Denise doesn't win immunity.  Of course if they play along with Malcolm, then turn on him next, that could work.

In the morning Denise had a big stingy pain.  She has fang marks on her neck.  Lisa & Skupin says a prayer for her, along with everyone there. Abby is kind of happy about it, because it gives her a better chance.

At the immunity challenge, once again Skupin and Malcolm took an early lead, but right before Malcolm got onto the platform, he fell off and had to start over.  Everyone made it to the puzzle section and Denise took the lead on the puzzle and almost got it but it just wasn't right.  In the meantime Malcolm finally gets to the puzzle and makes short work of it and ends up winning.  That gives him the immunity idol and the hidden immunity idol and tonight is the last night he can play it.  So will he choose to protect someone or will he keep it as a souvenier?  With is agreement with Lisa and Skupin, it certainly seems like Denise is a sure thing to go home and if Malcolm is smart he will have Skupin, Abby and Lisa vote Denise and he will vote with Denise for Abby.

Back at camp, they are sitting at the fire and Skupin gets attacked by a spark, but it is ok.  Abby talks to Skupin and Skupin talks to Lisa.
Malcolm tells Denise that he would give her the hidden idol if he felt she needed it, but he was sure that Abby was going home.

At TC, it was pour on Abby again and Abby made some great arguments for keeping her.  She wasn't too smart to keep putting down Skupin, but it doesn't matter anyway.  In the end, Abby was sent home, which was not the play I would have made, but I'm not out there.

The preview didn't show much for the finale on Sunday.

I think Lisa and Skupin made a mistake and I think Malcolm did too.  As I stated above, since he wanted to get Denise out and he didn't give her the idol, then he could have voted with her for Abby, as he did, but instructed Skupin and Lisa to vote for Denise, making them think he was as well.  When Denise would have lost by one vote, she would have naturally known that Malcolm didn't vote for her and she would still vote for him in the finals.  For Lisa and Skupin, this was their only opportunity, because now they will either be going to the final 3 with either Denise or Malcolm or one of them is joining the jury.  I do agree that Abby wouldn't have won, but I don't think Lisa or Skupin have shot against Malcolm or Denise.

So for Lisa and Skupin, they have to hope that Denise doesn't win immunity and Malcolm sticks to their agreement on the vote.  But this time Malcolm has to look bad and vote for Denise as well.  I don't see Denise voting against Malcolm, so if Denise does win immunity, then either Skupin or Lisa will go home.  I'm not sure who would go.  Then the question becomes, is this a final 3 or final 2.  I'm still leaning towards a final 2, but anything can happen.

I see Malcolm will win this game easily, if he is in the finals.  He was part of Tandang when they went from 3 tribes to 2 and I think he would get more votes.  Denise would be tough to beat too, for Lisa and Skupin, but they do stand a better chance against her.  I think Lisa may actually have an edge over Skupin, because I know Penner likes her and Jeff Kent probably wouldn't vote for a returning player.  Artis doesn't like Skupin either.

I like all four left and honestly don't care who wins.  From a game playing perspective, Malcolm deserves to win.  He is good socially, physically and strategically.  Denise is good socially and physically, but I haven't seen a great strategic game.  She has been ok, but not as good as Malcolm.  Skupin and Lisa have been poor strategically, although they both have improved lately.  Lisa is much better than Skupin socially and I think many on the jury like her, but she isn't a physical threat.  But if there is one area that doesn't matter as much, is the physical side.  I'm rooting for Lisa, then Skupin, then Malcolm and lastly Denise, but I will be happy no matter who wins because it has been a great season.  So until Sunday... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines - Episode 12 - Family Time

This is always one of my favorite episodes of the season!

After Tribal Council, back at camp, it was fairly calm and Abby was determined to stay on her game plan.  At the reward challenge everyone got a family member to participate with them.  As expected, everyone was emotional to see their family and Lisa especially.  The challenge consisted of the Survivors throwing muddy bags to their family member who then had to knock down 5 targets and the first one to do it gets to spend the evening with the rest of the tribe.  It was close down to the end but Malcolm's brother won the challenge.  After the challenge of course Jeff says to pick one more and Malcolm picks Lisa, after all she has been through emotionally and then someone tells Malcolm to ask for another.  Jeff allows it and Malcolm picks Skupin.  Of course his plan is to show love to his alliance mates.

While the family members are back at camp, Lisa's brother Justice convinces her that she needs to play this game and blindside Malcolm to get him out.  Skupin is on board with it as well and the four of them have a prayer session asking God to bless their plan, if it is His will.  The others are sitting near the fire and thought who knew they would come together over Jesus.  Malcolm did express concern that Justice might talk some sense into Lisa, but was still pretty confident.

At the immunity challenge the Survivors had to cross a bamboo balance beam, use a hook to get 3 bags out of the water and then build a stick out of pieces of wood and string.  The first to push over their target and drop their flag wins.  Everyone but Denise got through the balance beam fairly quickly, but Denise quickly caught up on the bag portion of the challenge.  Carter and Malcolm were the first to get their bags with Lisa close behind and it was a race to the end.  Malcolm pulled out the win though which ruined Lisa/Skupin's plan.

Back at camp the discussion was whether it should be Carter or Abby and Carter even came up on Malcolm and Skupin talking about it.  Carter respected the game but of course wanted to stay.  Abby meanwhile was making no friends as her and Denise had another confrontation and it seemed like everyone wanted to vote here out.

At Tribal Council there was talk about the obvious of Carter and Abby and both stated why they should stay.  In the end Abby stayed and Carter went, which considering the remaining players, that was probably the best move.

In the preview they show Abby and Lisa joining up again and that would also include Skupin, but will it work.  The trick is that Malcolm will play his idol next week and if he wins the immunity challenge, my guess is he would give the idol to Denise, to protect her, which is a very smart move on his part.  If he doesn't win immunity then obviously he would want Denise to win it.  If you are Skupin, Abby or Lisa, assuming they do decide to switch it up again, then you want to target Denise at the next TC and then hope Malcolm doesn't win immunity at the final 4, then you vote him out.  The only other possible scenario I see is that Abby gets voted out at the next TC.  I don't see Malcolm or Denise turning on Skupin and Lisa, although it also would be a smart move to break them up, but I don't think they will.  From the editing tonight, I think they are editing Lisa for the win.  I think they will succeed and vote Denise out next, then Malcolm and Lisa will beat Skupin and Abby in the finals.  But I can see that anyone but Abby can win this game.

Everyone is talking about final 3 and I too was thinking that, but as I mentioned in my last too posts, it could be final 2 and I'm thinking that is where we are going.  I think every season, except maybe season 2, there have been three tribal councils in the final episode.  We are at 5 players going into next Thursday's episode and then 4 players going into the final on Sunday.  If you have 3 tribal councils then two more people will join the jury and there will be a final two.

To wrap up on how I think each should play, to benefit themselves the best, assuming I'm right about a final 2:

Malcolm's best bet is to make a move and split up Lisa and Skupin, so at 4 there isn't a tie.  He will need Denise to do that, along with Abby.  I think he should target Lisa.  Then he needs to target Denise, as she is his biggest threat and then he needs to win immunity and take Abby over Skupin.

Denise's best bet is to play exactly the way I laid out for Malcolm except taking Malcolm out after Lisa and taking Abby to the end, if she wins immunity. Although if the final 2 is Malcolm and Denise, that would be a great final 2.

Abby's best plan is to do whatever she can to stay in the game.  The previews show her doing that.  If she can make it to the final 3, then she is guaranteed a final 2 spot, IMO.  Because if the others don't want her in the final 2 or 3, then she will be the next to go.

Skupin's best plan is to play with Lisa and Abby and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  He needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if he wants to win.  I don't think he would beat Lisa.

Lisa's best plan is to play with Abby and Skupin and take out Denise first and then Malcolm.  She needs to win the final immunity and take Abby, if she wants to guarantee her win.

Now will it play out any of those ways, only time will tell.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines - Episode 11 - Sunny Side Up and Sucking Eggs

After tribal council Abby is obviously still upset and the next morning Skupin and her have a talk.  Denise and Penner overheard and thought it was funny.  Then Malcolm and Abby go to tree mail and there are envelopes and Abby's first thought was it is letters from home and starts to cry again.  Malcolm comforts here and then she realizes it is for the Survivor Auction.  Abby goes in with a plan and that is to save the money and use it for something that will help her out.

At the auction there were lots of good food that several won.  Carter's first successful bid gave him a choice between food for him or rice and beans for the tribe.  He did the honorable thing and chose the rice and beans.  The second to last item was what Abby was waiting for, the advantage in the next challenge and immediately bid all her money, thus winning the advantage, which allowed her a 1 and 3 shot of winning it.  The final item Carter won again and it again was for the tribe.  They had 60 seconds to all partake in the food.

Back at camp everyone was happy and then Abby and Penner start talking and Abby expects Penner to apologize for how he and the others treated her at the TC.  He didn't, other than saying he was sorry it was her turn.  I thought he handled the situation very well.  Then Abby goes off and reads note.  She adds an element to it by saying she as found another immunity idol, when she was talking to Malcolm and then at the challenge she does a pretty wise thing and says there are two parts to the note.  The first part related to the challenge and the unsaid part was eluding to an idol.  Of course the second part wasn't really there, but she knew Jeff wouldn't play along if she said it.  So she played it well.

At the challenge, there was a wrinkle where at the start of each round everyone answered a question and if they got in wrong they had to carry 5% of their body weight with them.  Round one Lisa and Denise got it wrong.  4 of the 5 would advance and Lisa was the one that didn't.  The next round, Denise, Carter and Skupin all missed the question and added 5% weight, making Denise have 10% of her weight.  The top two advanced and Carter and Penner advanced.  Carter missed the question before the final round, so he was wear 10% now.  The final part of the challenge was different in that they had to untie knots where the previous two rounds they were clipped to a rope maze.  Abby took a quick lead and Carter was right behind her, but in the end, Abby won the immunity.

With Abby safe at TC, Penner was the next obvious choice of the final 4 alliance of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa.  Lisa was conflicted and told Penner what was happening and he was flabbergasted, but he knew that Lisa would stick to her word.  He talked to Skupin and it seemed like he may flip and I think he would have if Lisa would have too.  And at TC it came down to Penner and Denise and Penner got voted out 4-3.

The preview for next week shows it is the family challenge and Malcolm's brother talks to much and Malcolm worries it may hurt his game.

So with six remaining, will the final four alliance stand or will Skupin and Lisa switch to Carter and Abby.

I think Denise and Malcolm have the best shot of winning, if they are in the finals.  Which of the two will win is tough, but Denise is a better talker, so she may have an edge.

I think Skupin has a descent shot if he makes it.

Carter could pull out a win, but it depends who he is sitting with.  I think he beats Abby or Lisa, but I'm not sure he beats Skupin.

If Lisa makes it to the end, then I can see Penner bringing up the Facts of Life part of her past and I think the jury would hold that against her, which I think is stupid, but it is what it is.  Also while she has played a pretty honest game, she hasn't played a great game.  It really depends on who she is with.  She beats Abby, but I'm not sure about anyone else.

I don't think Abby has a chance to win, but then again if she makes it to the end and it is not by luck, then she may win.  Of course it depends on who she is sitting with.

The question still remains is it a final 2 or 3.  Either a final 2 with 9 jurors or a final 3 with 8.  I suppose there is the chance they may do something crazy and do a final 4 with 7 juror, but I doubt it.  My guess is it will be a final 3 and there will be only 3 more episodes remaining.  Next week, the following Wednesday and then the finale on Sunday.    Either way it should be fun, so until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 10 - Social Grace of a Mack Truck!

Abby and Pete discuss how they lost control and Abby couldn't understand why Tandang wasn't strong.  She is obviously not a rocket scientist.  Pete said they fell asleep at the wheel, but I think they just expected the speed bumps to stick with them instead of slowing them down.  Skupin says that he is going to control this game for himself, as much as possible.  He and Denise say they should all be final 6, then the best ones win.

Lisa and Abby talk and Lisa basically says she doesn't trust Abby and it will be hard to stick with them.  She would rather be sixth and feel good.

At the reward challenge it was a race to get three of your teams discs flipped over all at once before the next team.  It was close but on the last round Skupin pulled an Abby an flipped the wrong one giving the red team the win.  Carter, Pete, Abby and Malcolm get a spa reward and the rest go back to camp.

The reward was very nice, lots of nice food and a bath and massages, but not to carry on like Abby, that's all there is to say about that, since they didn't talk about strategy.  When they arrived back at camp, Abby wouldn't shut up about how great the reward was.  They asked Carter what he liked and Abby didn't even let him finish.  Then to top it all off Abby said she is done cooking for the rest of the time there.  She expects to eat, but not cook.  Denise is looking forward to sending her home.

Skupin and Malcolm talk final 4 and Malcolm was determined to make a final 4 that day.  Skupin talks to Lisa but she isn't sure and says she prefers Penner, but Penner won't commit when they talk.  So Malcolm, Lisa, Denise and Skupin agree final 4 and it will be interesting to see if it lasts.  There will be two groups of two when they get to the final four.

At the immunity challenge it was challenging, but the two they want out didn't get past round 1 so it didn't matter.  It came down to Skupin, Carter and Denise and Skupin had a lead until the last knot, but Carter caught up and finished the challenge first.

What they should do is split the vote, just in case Abby gets a wild hare to save Pete and that is exactly what Penner suggests.  Pete and Abby do their best to get someone to flip and take out Malcolm.  Skupin was the only one that considered it, but I think the combination of the plan coming out to Malcolm and the beating the Abby took at Tribal Council convinced him to stay with his word to Malcolm.

At Trbial Council Abby got hit by that Mack Truck.  Even Jeff gave her a earful.  Denise is a great communicator and she tried her best to help Abby understand, but Abby couldn't keep her mouth shut.  It will be a mistake to take Denise to the final 3 or 2, because she could easily win.

In the preview it shows Penner upset at Lisa, because she made the final 4 plan with Malcolm, but that is entirely Penner's fault.  Abby says she is going to fight.  Even if she can pull out an immunity, her chances are slim.  If the final 4 of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa holds strong, then Penner's only option is to align with Carter and Abby, but that still leaves them down one.  Can he guilt Lisa to flipping, maybe.  Here is how I see the game playing out from here:

Abby will go home next unless she wins immunity.  With the final 6, that is the perfect time to blindside Malcolm, but will Skupin and Lisa break their word to do it.  I don't think they want to be sitting next to either Malcolm or Denise at the final 2 or 3.  My gut says that Lisa and Skupin will stay with the alliance and they will target either Penner or Carter next, depending on immunity wins.  When they get down to five it only makes sense to take out the last person, leaving the final 4.  The reason is at that point it will be tough to get Malcolm out, but they could take out Denise, if Malcolm doesn't give her the idol or she doesn't win immunity.  But that is risky too, because at least if the final 4 stay together, then Malcolm can only use his idol to reach final 3 and then it comes down to a tie, unless Malcolm decides to betray Denise.

There are still a lot of variables and really at 7 is the best time to make the move.  Penner, Skupin, Carter and Abby blindside Malcolm.  Then they take out Denise, if she doesn't win immunity.  Then Skupin, Lisa and Abby blindside Penner or Carter and ride to the final 3.  That is Skupin's (and Lisa's) best play.

Penner and Carter have the toughest road, but if they can get Skupin to join them, then they could have a shot.  Malcolm and Denise would be tough to beat and I think the only person that may legitimately have a chance to beat them might be Lisa, but I doubt it.

What would be interesting is to have a Skupin, Penner and Abby final 3.  would they give Abby the win over the two returning players or who would win between Penner and Skupin.

So many possibilities to ponder before next week, so until then... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 9 - The Big Mouth Sinks the Ship

Lisa starts off the show fighting her inner demons and beating herself up over her move.  Penner does an amazing job of connecting with her and comforting her.  Many of the other players also are very kind to her, but she still wants to stay loyal to Tandang.

At the reward challenge, it works out that Tandang, minus Abby who sat out, got put together and the rest got put together into two teams.  Skupin and Penner are the first to go and Skupin gets a quick lead, but not by much.  When they get to the part where they are to search for the bags of balls, Penner decides to stay and uncover all 4 bags so the rest of his team would just have to pick them up and go.  The strategy pays off and Penner's team wins.

The reward was awesome. They got to deliver toys and schools supplies to a nearby village and it touched all of them.  Malcolm taught kids in Malaysia for a year and then left that to be a bar tender.  This experience made him wonder why he left that.  Penner had a great time playing with the kids.

At camp, Pete, Artis and Abby talk to Lisa about keeping Tandang strong and going forward, but Abby opens her mouth and calls Lisa naive and gullible.  Of course that doesn't make Lisa happy nor Pete.

At the immunity challenge, each member had to get six balls to balance on a paddle, one at a time by rolling it up the handle in getting into one of the six marked places.  Skupin and Pete both were neck and neck through the first 4 balls and no one else was even close.  Skupin got his fifth ball and Pete started to panic and lost two of the balls he already had.  Skupin won easily from there.

Back at camp, Penner talks to Lisa about switching to vote with them and then he talks to Skupin.  Mike is on board with it but wants to confirm with Lisa, since they have been strong since the beginning.  It still doesn't seem that Lisa wants to switch.  Meanwhile Malcolm, Denise and Carter agree that it has to be Artis, because they figured Abby may give Pete the idol and she wouldn't have given it to Artis.

At Tribal Council, Lisa starts off with a long speech on how she tried to play the game but basically got poop blown back at her.  She did say that she received grace from many people when she returned and Abby asked if she gave her grace.  Lisa responded that the non-Tandang members gave more grace than the Tandang members.  Then Abby sealed their fate by saying that she was worried most about Lisa switching and Lisa replied that maybe it is time for a decision.  Of course that decision was made and Artis went home in a 5-4 vote.  Lisa stayed true but Skupin switched.

The previews show that Lisa wants to switch now but Abby pulls the guilt trip on her and breakups have never been easy for Lisa.  Also Mike talks to Lisa and has a plan for final four.  What could that plan be?

If I'm Skupin, I would take Lisa, Penner and Carter.  I say that because if they get Penner and Carter out and stick with Denise and Malcolm, that would put a tie at the final 4.  The bigger problem is the idols.  My guess is Abby won't give it up to Pete, especially since it appears the numbers won't be in their favor, so as long as Pete doesn't win immunity, my guess is he will be the next to go.  If Pete wins immunity, they will target Abby, who of course has the idol and would probably play it.  That means the 5 others need to split the vote, but that also means one of them would go home.  Who would that be?  If I was playing it, Skupin, Penner and Lisa should agree to split the votes with Denise and Malcolm voting Abby and thinking Carter will vote Abby too, Abby and Pete probably voting Lisa or Penner and Penner, Lisa, Skupin and Carter should vote out Malcolm and blindside him, since he has the idol.  The problem with that is Lisa probably wouldn't go for it, since Malcolm was so nice to her about calling him out on the idol, so it may have to be Denise.

If Pete or Abby don't win immunity then you split the vote 3-3 between them and it doesn't matter which one plays the idol, the other will go home and the idol will be out.

After that, Skupin, Lisa, Penner and Carter should team up and get out Denise and Malcolm, although, Penner and Carter could stick together, I don't think they are as tight as Denise and Malcolm.

There are lots of possibilities and at this point anything can happen.  What we don't know for sure is if it will be a final 2 or final 3.  It will either be a final 2 with 9 jury members or final 3 with 8 jury members, neither of which have been done before.

So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 8 - The Facts of Life

At the start of the show, Penner is of course worried that he is next and he is correct and talks to Skupin and says that he has to win immunity and then Skupin is on the block.  Lisa and Skupin are talking and Lisa spills the beans that Malcolm has the idol and she talks about getting rid of him on a blindside at some point.

At the reward challenge the divide them into two teams and it is a race into the water to release puzzle pieces and then dig for a key before assembling the puzzle.  The yellow team starts off fast and takes an early lead since the blue team sent Abby first and she wasn't too fast.  Carter catches up to a slow Lisa to give the blue team the lead but ultimately Denise takes the lead back when Skupin has trouble getting the last set of puzzle pieces.  Penner makes short work of the puzzle and the yellow team wins the reward.  Penner of course talks about turning on Pete and taking him out.  Lisa likes the plan but thinks it is better to stay with the old Tandang tribe.

Back at camp, Pete and Abby are talking and Pete says after Penner goes, he would like to target Jeff and keep Skupin around.

At the Immunity Challenge, the top three players to untie their puzzle pieces advance to the next round.  Pete, Penner and Jeff are those three.  The next round is assembling the puzzle and Pete and Jeff get off to a quick lead over Penner, but Penner then starts to get it and makes a huge run and ends up winning immunity. Of course Penner has a respectable celebration.

Back at Camp, Lisa goes into game mode again and tells Pete about Malcolm's idol and says that they need to blindside him.  Pete agrees and that was the plan until Malcolm and Pete start talking and Pete confronts Malcolm about the idol.  Malcolm denies it and Pete throws Lisa under the bus.  Meanwhile Penner gets a group to go after Pete and Pete now targets Jeff.

At Tribal Council, the fun happens.  Jeff starts talking to Skupin asking if he was worried when Penner won immunity and of course he said yes.  The conversation steers towards Malcolm when Lisa confesses that she threw Malcolm under the bus.  The talk continues about how Malcolm was a target and then he pulls out the idol and says he is playing it and someone will be getting the brunt of it (smart play on his part).  Jeff then asks if anyone else has an idol they want to tell everyone about and Abby opens her mouth and then shows everyone (that was dumb in my opinion).  She says the idol will be used to keep the alliance strong.  Lisa points out that she played both sides but never left the original alliance and that is why she told them about Malcolm's idol.  Penner then rallies the troops to exercise his plan.

After they all vote and Jeff comes back and asks if anyone wants to play their idol, no one does.  Malcolm was very smart here too, as he put enough fear that he will use it that they don't vote for him, then holds onto the idol.  In the end Abby gets one vote, Jeff gets 5 and Pete gets 4.

Jeff's closing statement as classic about how he has made so much money at baseball but the 1 million from this game was something he really wanted (actually $600,000 after Obama takes his share) and he is not happy.  I think he is just pissed the game didn't go his way, not that he is being a sore loser.

In the preview it shows Lisa playing again and thinking of now switching away from the original Tandang alliance.  Will it happen?  We will find out.

So now that all hell has broken loose in all the alliances.  Pete was very close to going home, Abby was an idiot and Malcolm played it well, but now is a target just because of the idol, it leaves the final 9 people in an interesting place.  I don't think any alliance is safe, other than Malcolm and Denise and Peter, Abby and Artis, and that leave 4 people that can go where is best for them.  Malcolm will probably have a difficult time trusting Lisa now, but if he gets Penner and Skupin on his side and string Lisa or Carter along, then they can take Pete out next.  it is going to be a fun episode next week and obviously with this week's developments, you can pretty much disregard my prediction last week.  So until then... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 7 - Drying the Clothes

Back at camp after TC, Penner was surprised to see his name come up.  Jeff K. told him Katie was just determined to get him out. He also said that he can get Penner before he goes after Jeff.

At Tandang, Michael makes the observation that they are at the same day when he fell into the fire in Australia.  They respond for him to stay away from the fire.  Then we see a boat arriving telling them they are merged and they have 10 minutes to gather the stuff they want to bring along.  They are excited.  At Kalabaw, they also have a boat show up with the same message.  Jeff K. says that he has two priorities, get rid of Penner and Skupin.  Denise wants to stay with both alliances she has, Kalabaw and with Malcolm.  Abby encourages RC to get info, but RC says she will but they aren't a big happy family.  Skupin says he and RC are free agents.

At the merged tribe's camp, Lisa feels the need to be helpful while the guys build the shelter and lays out everyone's clothes and finds Malcolm's idol.  He takes her aside and she says that she won't tell anyone and didn't find it on purpose.  Malcolm tells her that him, Denise and her will be the final three.  Lisa isn't sure about that.  Then Lisa and Penner have a chat and he recognizes her but says he won't rat her out.  Penner approaches Skupin about joining forces, thinking he has the 4 Kalabaw strong.  Skupin and RC are receptive.  Jeff K. talks to Pete and the gang and talk about taking out Penner or RC and splitting the votes, just in case Penner plays the idol.  This could get interesting.

At the immunity challenge a very tough challenge in holding 25% of their weight.  Denise and Carter lasted the longest, each winning immunity.  Carter and Jeff were the final 2 and Jeff let go with the understanding that Carter owes him one.  Artis says the vote will split and Penner or RC will go.  Somehow I don't think that is going to happen.

RC and Skupin are switching to Kalabaw.  Jeff and Carter are talking strategy and Penner walks up.  Penner assures them that he is with them until the end along with Skupin and RC.  Jeff tells Pete he is with them. Which way will it go.

At TC there was lots of talk and Lisa is very well spoken.  It came down to Pete and RC, because Penner played his idol.  Penner got 5 votes, that didn't count, RC got 4 votes and Pete got 2 votes, sending RC to the jury.  The vote was as follows:  For Penner (Abby, Skupin, Denise, Malcolm and Lisa ), RC (Artis, Pete, Jeff and Carter), Pete (RC and Penner).

The preview shows Penner as betrayed and determined and it will be interesting to see if he can form another alliance or if he will be sent home next week.  The edit of the preview makes it look like he may win immunity, but that doesn't mean he will.

Here are the alliances that I see:

Pete, Artis, Lisa and Abby

Malcolm and Denise, but Malcolm is in with Pete.

Skupin voted with Pete, but is on his own.

Penner is on his own.

Jeff and Carter are together and voted with Pete.

So where does that leave everyone in terms of the game.  Pete's four should be strong for now and my guess is that Malcolm will also stay strong and bring Denise in.  Jeff and Carter made a bad move by switching because I think they will be left out on this, but Pete may not say anything until after Skupin and Penner are gone.  So here is my predicted order of boot, barring any immunity wins that mess it up.

Penner
Skupin
Carter
Jeff

Then the question will be will Lisa stay strong with Pete or will she go with Malcolm and Denise.  I think it is too early to tell, but I would say that Lisa is the bottom of that alliance and she could make final 3 with Malcolm and Denise.  The tough part is that Malcolm and Abby have idols and that could throw a wrench into things, as well as Malcolm, Denise and Pete all can win immunities.  Penner is also a threat and skupin not as much.

As far as the final, there were 11 going into tonights episode and RC is the first member of the jury, so that means there will either be a final 3 with 8 jury members or a final 2 with 9 jury members.  Neither of which have been done before.  We have historically had 9 jury members with a final 3 or 7 jury members with a final 2.  I don't recall any other ones.  8 for 3 or 9 for two make more sense, since it totally eliminates any possibility of a tie (well not all, because the 8 could vote 4-4-0).  It will be interesting to see.

So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines Episode 6 - Blindsides are the way to go

After TC back at camp Katie is concerned about being the weekest link with her girls gone.  The next day Katie and Denise discuss who has the idol and both assume Penner has it.  They agree that they need to get him out next.  That should ensure they both make the merge.

At Tandang, Skupin has been eating too much of the rice.  He is expendible according to Artis and Pete.

So at the challenge the two tribes go for reward and the first tribe to get three points by rolling a ball into their goal gets a nice lunch.  The first group out there go for over an hour and then they start talking and in the end Kalabaw is giving their rice to Tandang in exchange for the win.  Kalabaw will now have to fish to eat in less than ideal conditions.  Artis was against the deal and it seemed like some others were too.  Abby and Lisa left it up to Mike and Pete and they decided to do it.  It will help Tandang since they are low on rice, but I think Mike has hurt his game even more by accepting it. I think the same goes for Penner too.  The preview was a misdirection and Penner was reaching between Skupin's legs, but only to grab onto the ball, not to do anything crazy, as they edited it to seem.

After the reward challenge Kalabaw was confident.  Jeff K. said that in a couple days without the rice it will hit them, but it was a good move by Penner for his tribe.  With the little rice they had, it wouldn't have lasted and this gives them some much needed energy for the immunity challenge.  Plus they got the letters from home which also gives them an emotional boost.

At Tandang, Artis and Abby are pissed and it looks like Kalabaw only had a days worth of rice, at least at the amounts that they have been eating.  They are blaming Skupin, but according to the conversation between Skupin and RC it was a group decision.  Mike asked everyone and they all said yes, except Artis.  Morale was low and Lisa described it a double low because you gave up and you didn't win.

At Kalabaw, Carter is expressing his displeasure and Katie is agreeing with him.  Penner tried to go fishing and caught two very small fish.  Penner said they must win or it will be bad.

At the immunity challenge Kalabaw starts off strong with Jeff's baseball skills paid off, but then Skupin told Lisa to send it to Malcolm and he caught 3 in a row to give Tandang the come from behind win.  That sends Kalabaw back to TC.

Back at camp Jeff K. is thinking Penner should go, but is thinking Katie is a no brainer too.  He first decides on Penner but then has second thoughts.  Penner tells Katie it's Denise right off the bat and of course she is suspicious of it.  Jeff tells her that it is Penner.  Carter also had a tough time with going with Penner.

At TC, there was a lot of talk about blind sides and everyone knew one was coming.  It is easier than the confrontation, they said.  In the end, Katie came up short and was voted out.  Jeff P. concludes that if the four of you are strong, then you never know what can happen.  The preview for next week show a twist.  Is it the merge?  Is it something else.  Mike says it is new territory for all of them.  That is true for a merge, for him, but it may be something else.  Kalabaw better hope it is the merge, because it is not looking good for them.  I think the twist is that it will be the merge, but they are going to a new beach.  It will either be a neutral location or it could even be Matsing's old beach.

Also this leaves 11 in the game and usually when there is a final 3 there are 9 jury members.  Jeff did not say that Katie was the first member of the jury, so that makes me think that they are doing a final 2 and only 7 jury members.  They could do a final 3 with 7 or even 8 but that hasn't been done so far.

so that is all I have for this week, so until next week... The Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines Episode 5 - Two is the magic number

Back at the Matsing camp Denise and Malcolm talk about a possible tribal swap (or splitting of them to each other tribe) and how cold it is. Then the next day they realize this may be their last day at camp and decided to look for the idol.  They looked everywhere but figured it out.  Malcolm ended up finding it.

At the reward challenge, the Matsing tribe was split and Malcolm went to Tandang and Denise went to Kalabaw.  The challenge was one of balance, skill and timing and the tribes exchanged wins until Tandang pulled it out 5-3.  Mike Skupin had the best play as he threw his idol in the air and went for Penner's and got it and Penner's hit the ground first.  It was a smart move.  After the challenge they show Penner saying he likes Denise but would rather have had Malcolm, as they may have had the cookies now.  It shall be interesting to see how well Malcolm and Denise do being split on different tribes.  Malcolm does stand a better chance at the moment, because of his idol.

Back at the Tandang camp almost everyone loved Malcolm.  RC was the only disappointed one and that was just because she saw Malcolm and Pete talking and she knew that wasn't good for her.  Pete talks to Malcolm in private and says him and Abby have the idol and that now they can get rid of Skupin without fear.  Malcolm likened himself to the star football star from the other team that everyone wants to get to know.  That made him feel good.  It looks good for him, at the moment.

At Kalabaw, Denise said that she was happy to be on the tribe and Katie was glad they got Denise so the women's alliance can hopefully have 4 and she won't listen to the guys.  So this could be good for her too.

Now Kalabaw has a challenge in the fact that Dana is sick.  Her stomach hurts, fever and can't keep anything down.  Jeff Probst and the medical team show up.  Medical says with more fluids she may be ok and they give her at least 12 hours.  Now it is up to her if she can continue.  She decides she is too sick and she gets pulled from the game.  Katie is mad because Dana was one of her biggest allies.

At the Immunity challenge, Tandang led the whole way but Kalabaw came from behind and almost won.  Katie really slowed Kalabaw down in the first two parts of the challenge.  Tandang's win gives them a two person advantage since Kalabaw is going to TC.  Skupin once again showed he does good and Malcolm did well.  The tribe worked very well together untying the ropes and doing the puzzle.

Back at camp Kalabaw discusses who should go.  Katie apologizes for her poor performance and Dawson says they just need to get past that.  Denise is safe because she is stronger than both Katie and Dawson.  Laying around camp, Dawson starts to talk sports, just to get under Jeff's skin.  It works and he pushes for her to go.  She probably should have kept her mouth shut, but it still may not have saved her.

At TC Probst asks why Denise should stay and asks Kent what this vote is based on.  It was pretty clear that Denise was not going and it was between Katie and Dawson.  Dawson gets all the votes except the one she cast for Denise.  Denise was obviously a Jeff Probst fan because she gave him a hug after he snuffed her torch.  In her confessional she says should could have outed Kent, but said maybe he could win the game.  If he does then she said he owes her big time.

------------

So going forward we see at the next challenge someone gets personal in the challenge and it is either Penner or Kent.  Since we haven't seen anything like that from Penner before, my guess is it may be kent.  You see Artis saying he doesn't want any of that and Jeff Probst says he is pretty sure they are in uncharted waters.  My guess is it was a bad move and it will affect that person's game, but who really knows in this game.

So Tandang looks good, with Pete, Abby, Artis, Malcolm and Lisa in a solid alliance.  Skupin thinks he is still in that alliance with Pete, RC and Abby, but that is obviously not the case.  RC is on the outs with pretty much everyone. Malcolm seems good, but he could be the first to go once they get rid of Skupin and RC (if that happens).  They are working well together in challenges and that can only help them out.  We'll see if they can keep their lead or if Kalabaw will win the next couple immunities and tie it up.

Kalabaw looks good for the most part, with Katie being the obvious weak link and definitely the next to go unless whomever does the "personal" thing during the challenge has that held against them and they go.  Again I'm thinking it is Kent, but it could be Carter too.  We'll have to see.

There are 12 people left in the game.  Assuming there is a final 3, which has been the norm lately, there will be a jury of 7 or 9.  If it is 9, then the next person voted out is the first member of the jury.  If that is the case, I can see a merge happening in the next 2 or 3 episodes.  Here is how I'm hoping it turns out.  I'd like to see Tandang keep their winning streak, especially in the immunity challenges and I would like to see kalabaw go to TC again.  Before the merge though I think Tandang should go to TC once and it is pretty obvious that RC will probably be the first to go, but Pete may decide Skupin should go.  I hope it is RC.  Her story has been told and I really do want to see Mike go far.  My guess is the merge will happen in two episodes (not next week but the week after).  I really want to see Malcolm and Denise get back together and I want to see Pete go down.  I have nothing against Pete, but he is the most cocky at the moment and I always like to see the cocky players get it handed to them.

Of course they could do a final 2, which always has only 7 jury members so that may push the merge back an episode or two.  Fun season so far and I think this season will really take off once the merge happens.  So until next week... the Tribe has spoken!

Survivor Philippines - Episode 4 - I'd write you a check to go along with the million to help cover taxes.

Back at camp at Matsing it was raining the next morning and the fire was out.  Malcolm tried to start the fire later but everything was too wet.  The tribe seems to be in pretty good spirit in spite of the situation and all are determined to mount a comeback.  Denise is worried and is looking to protect herself, which is smart.  Russell and Malcolm didn't mention their thinking on the alliance.

At Tandang Peter is complaining about the weather and Artis was able to start a fire, despite the rain.  Next we see Abby finding the clue in RC's stuff and now she knows that RC wasn't honest with her.  Little did she know that Peter took the clue and stashed it there to create a stir and of course RC knew nothing about it.  Peter is playing an intense game, somewhat like Russell Hantz, but more like Jeff Varner.  Jeff V. was the master of stirring up trouble but no one realizing it was him.  Peter so far is doing the same thing.  Great move, as it brings Abby even closer and alienates RC.

At Kalabaw the three guys are getting clams and talking strategy and they form a three person alliance.  First Jeff K. and Penner are talking and then Penner and Carter.  Meanwhile the girls know that something is up because the guys are gone for so long.  Dana says we'll stick together and get some other girls in the alliance and we don't need them.  Girls can do it.

At Matsing, Russell starts looking for the clue and Denise comes up on him while he is looking.  She knows he's looking for it, but plays along with his story.  She then tells Malcolm and they look through his stuff and of course don't find it.  Malcolm says the only thing they can do is blindside him.

At Tandang, RC tries to confront Abby to talk about it but Abby wants nothing to do with it.  Peter plays it off like he doesn't know anything and RC thinks he is lying.  Then Lisa and RC are talking and Lisa doesn't know anything but says she is going to fan the flame a little and let them burn each other out.  Lisa is finally playing this game!

At the challenge Matsing got off to a quick lead and Kalabaw was behind early.  By the middle of the challenge both Matsing and Tandang were leading, pretty close to each other and Kalabaw was way behind.  Artisan did a good job of smashing the pots and actually got two on one shot.  Tandang finished first.  Jeff K. was a master at the pots and beat out Malcolm to send Matsing back to TC again.  Russell loses it again and is talking to God and smashing pots.  Jeff confronts him on it and says that everyone will fail, surely you can't be perfect.  Russell says it pisses him off but he understands that.  The other tribes get a kick out of it, but I think they also had some sympathy for him.

Fun at Matsing as they get ready for TC.  Everyone saying to vote the other out, but the way it appears, Russell will be gone and I think that is the best move for Malcolm and Denise.  If they can stay together or at least survive until the merge, then they could have a shot.  It obviously would be better for them if they can stay together and the producers don't decide just to split Matsing between the other two tribe, so both stay the same plus one.  That isn't real fair, so hopefully it will be a random shuffle.

At TC Jeff asked questions and at least the way it was edited Jeff didn't ask Russell why he should stay, but instead why Malcolm or Denise should go.  I love Russell's passion for excellence and I'm sure that takes him far in life, but sadly he is not meant for this game.  As expected Malcolm and Denise voted him out.

The previews show both Malcolm and Denise tearing the camp apart looking for the idol.  Of course if they don't have the clue, then it will be tougher.  Someone from Kalabaw gets medical attention and it seems bad.  Will someone be pulled from the game?  Wouldn't it be strange if it was Penner, for the second time or maybe Jeff K. and the knee gives out or something.  Hopefully it is nothing too serious.

Peter is in a great position for the game and Lisa is smart to stick with him.  I think Abby is too much a loose canon and I would get rid of her and keep Skupin.  RC is getting shafted, but that is the game.

Depending how the injury thing plays out, Penner, Jeff and Carter seem to be good and the girls seem to be good.  That is not ideal, because that becomes a tie.  You don't want your fate decided by a rock, so someone will have to flip.

I'm also assuming that they will do some sort of tribal swap next episode.  That will leave two tribes of 7.  If they do it early on, then the injured person may not be who we think and could be someone else that ends up on the Red tribe (Kalabaw, if it stays that name).  Again I hope they do a random mixup of the tribes so there is at least a chance Malcolm and Denise will end up on the same tribe.

So good show tonight and it should be interesting to see how next week plays out.  So until then... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 3 - Slip, Sliding away

Back from Tribal Council and Matsing seems to be good, but then Russell has his confessional and he agreed with Roxy's argument and hopes Denise doesn't side with Malcolm and Angie.  Too Late, at least that is what it seems.

At Tandang RC and Abby have another confrontation and then RC tells Skupin about it.  Then Abby tells Pete about the clue and Pete approaches Lisa about staying on and getting Michael voted out.  She goes along with it, reluctantly, but knows it is her only option.   At Kalabaw, everyone is around the fire and Dana notices the emblem is missing off the rice box.  Then Jeff K and a couple others say they need to blindside Penner at the first TC.

Demise and Malcolm confirm their alliance and say that Angie or Russell is next.  No clear cut decision yet.

Matsing stumbles again at the challenge where both Russell and Angie were useless at the challenge and they fell behind quick.  By the editing it looks like they were close doing the puzzle, but came up short.  Kalabaw finished first and Tandang finished second.  Third week in a row Matsing goes to TC.  Angie says Russell is the weak link, which is the pot calling the kettle black (no pun intended).

Penner approaches Jeff K and wants to bond with him so he tells him about the idol.  Jeff K agrees, sort of, to help each other out.

At Tandang Abby and Pete start looking for the idol and Abby finds it.  Now it is not looking good for Mike as Artis is now against him too.

At Matsing, Malcolm and Denise talk about who to vote out and then Angie shows up.  In front of her they say Russell, but we'll see what happens.

At Tribal Council both Angie and Russell both were passionate in their plea for staying and in the end Russell won out.  I think his physical strength is more important at this point, providing there isn't a tribal swap next episode.  I'm sure it was tough for Malcolm to let Angie go, because she would have been loyal.  Once again it is great to see that she took the result with class and is still rooting for them.

So many alliance shifts made this episode and nothing seems to be secure.  Sure it seems like Skupin is doomed and Lisa is saved, Penner and Jeff K appear to have an alliance now, at least by the preview, but I would not be surprised at all if a tribal swap happens next episode.  If not then, it will definitely happen in episode 5.  I'm thinking that it will happen next episode and the odd person will sit out the challenge and be on the losing tribe and may have immunity from the vote, but maybe not.  I would love to see a good mix up of the tribes so all the alliances are broken apart and new ones can form.  I also think next episode makes the most sense, because it is getting tough to come up with challenges for such different numbers on each tribe.

So far I like Malcolm's game along with Denise and if they can survive I think either one of them have a strong shot at winning.  I don't think the Penner/Kent alliance will last and I really don't see either of them winning. I think Pete has a strong head on his shoulders and if he keeps Lisa close and either Artis or Abby, then he could win too.  Skupin needs to stop doing stupid things and get a new alliance or he will be gone quickly.  This was a better episode tonight than the last episode and I look forward to seeing what happens next.

So until next week... The Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 2 - Cookies would be nice!

Russell apologizes and hopes things are better.  His plan is to step back and let the tribe make their own decisions and if it fails, they will be on the chopping block.  We'll see how that works out.

Angie and Malcolm are cuddling, because it is cold.  The Roxy wakes up and sees them and is now determined to break them up.

RC finds the clue to the idol with Lisa right there, but Lisa doesn't notice and then RC starts to look for it and Abby comes up while she is looking and RC tells here, hoping it will secure their alliance, but then Abby gets really leary of RC and Mike and thinks she is forming a sub-alliance.  She says that if RC screws her, she is dead.

Penner continues to be obsessed with the idol and the rain gets everyone but him to go to their cave for shelter.  Penner starts looking but doesn't find it.  A little later it occurs to him where it is and it is the bull medalion on the rice box.  He finds it and is happy.  Jeff K. is hoping the rain will give him the opportunity to rest his knee.

Lisa is struggling.  Admitting that she is an introvert and unless she is hiding behind a role, she isn't good with the small talk.  The rest of the tribe thinks she is sneaky and trying to find the idol, but obviously that is not it.  I hope Michael reaches out to her again when right.

Angie and Malcolm are still cuddling and the tribe is noticing.  Malcolm picks up on the vibe and is concerned.

Roxy has a tough moment with all the rain and Russell tries to get her to open up to what she is feeling, but she doesn't.  When the sun comes out she praises God and says a prayer out loud, using english and a prayer language and the rest of the tribe is leary of it.  It's not looking good for the Matsing tribe.

At the challenge Matsing loses again.  It was close though at the end and Kalabaw barely pulled out the second place finish.  Tandang had another good showing and Lisa did a great job of directing the puzzle making.  Before the challenge you could tell Matsing was in trouble because everyone was giving an excuse why they shouldn't run twice.  I was impressed that Jeff K. went both times with his bad knee.

Back at camp Roxy goes off on Angie to Russell and says she has to go.  She doesn't really talk like you would expect a Christian to talk, but she does have spunk and I don't think she has really gone overboard.  Malcolm and Angie see the show and Malcolm says that they will call them out for the sleeping situation.  Denise is in the middle and has an alliance with Malcolm and is conflicted.

A lively TC.  Roxy was intense on accusing Malmcolm and Angie of more than an alliance.  She said the words a couple is dangerous.  While her and Russell were in a relationship, they too were tight.  In the end Roxy proved to be more of the liablility than Angie and she was sent home.

In the previews, we see that Pete is talking to Lisa about getting Skupin out and she wisely says she's ok with it.  At the challenge Mike gives it all he has and ends up with a cut on his face, but is this a red herring?  At TC Jeff says fortunes can change quickly and I think he may be hinting of a tribal swap, down to two tribes.  My guess is it either next episode or the one that follows it.

Russell did a better job of getting input and letting everyone voice their opinions, so that was good, but it didn't change the outcome.  Malcolm, Angie and Denise can be a strong 3 if they can stay together in a swap, otherwise everyone on Matsing is in trouble.  Penner is lucky that he found the idol, because his tribe will vote him out as soon as they can.  The only thing that will save him is if Jeff K's knee goes out on him.  My guess is that he will play the idol.  I'm not sure who the next person to go would be on that tribe.

I think the preview of Pete going to Lisa is just a sign that the original 4 alliance is breaking up.  I think it is nuts to get rid of Michael's strength at this point and Abby would be the best first choice, from a physical and social perspective.  She is annoying.  Lisa needs to try harder to fit in and hope it isn't too late and that Pete will help save her.  It could also signify the tribal swap and RC and Abby are either split up or both are on the other tribe, but then I would think Lisa, Mike and Pete would want to stick together.

In either case I don't see any tribe as particularly strong in alliances and actually Penner's tribe maybe the best off, with the exception of Penner.

My final note is that I am impressed with the way Roxy handled being voted off and her closing speech.  That showed class and it also showed that she was just playing the game with all her heart, which I respect.  She was just a little too out there for the rest of her tribe.

So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 1 - You Take the Good You Take the Bad

--- This first part of the blog was written during each commercial break ---

After a long summer off we finally get to watch our favorite show again.

A good intro with Jeff describing the game, as he always does and cutting to interviews with 3 new castaways and the 3 returning ones.  Then Jeff comes aboard the boat containing the 15 new contestants and asks them about being in 3 tribes.  Jeff Kent says if you go to TC you will be down quick.  Frankenstein says as long as their are no celeberties, which his tribe doesn't have.  Then Jeff talks about how many players have been evacuated and the girl in the blue dress describes the moment she remembers, then Jeff tells them 3 are returning and another boat shows up with Skupin, Penner and Russell.

Next Jeff says you have 60 seconds to grab what you can and they are off.  Jeff Kent may have hurt his knee when Penner sets the raft loose.

At Camp, Russell's tribe, Matsing, gets the first coverage and they got a lot of face time. Russell is already cutting his own throat by saying he doesn't want to be the leader, but proceeds to be the leader.  Impressively they get fire very quickly thanks to Malasia guy's knowledge, but he did a smart thing by letting Russell do the work.  Russell is definitely going pretty quickly, or so it seems. Then Penner's tribe, Kalabaw, is shown and immediately Penner is on the outs, mainly because he is a returning player.  The only thing that may save him is the fact that Jeff K. may have to go, just from his medical condition.  Skupin's tribe, Tandang, already is jelling really well and there is already an alliance formed.  We'll see if it lasts.

Skupin confronts Lisa and lets her know he recognized her, but he is already in the alliance and he is playing a smart game.  While he doesn't want Lisa to go, the rest of his alliance doesn't trust Lisa, so he will do what he has to.  He definitely seems to be in the best place out of the 3 returning players.  Lisa is also not bonding because she is staying behind while the tribe goes off.  Dana on Penner's tribe bonds with Jeff K. immediately and everyone pretty much agrees Penner won't last.  Jeff K. could have trouble because he is recognized by Dawson, but she is holding the info for a time when she needs it.  That with is knee may be is ticket home.  Russell's tribe has Zane thinking he is running the game by making an alliance with everyone, but Molcholm rats him out and I think he will be one of the first to go.  Russell may go first though.

Skupin is mister accident.  In the matter of a day he cuts his head, finger and foot.  Most are superficial but Pete says lets see what happens when we have fire.  Penner is already looking for the idol.  He finds the clue in the rice but not the idol.  Everyone knows he's looking and he definitely has a target on his back.  Russell while cooking the rice finds the clue.  He goes to look at the clue and Zane sees him.  Zane confronts him about looking for the idol and Russell denies it.  I don't think that is a lie, because they didn't show him looking, but I bet he will.  He gives the line if you are looking or find it, you are gone.  Zane wants to vote Russell out first.  So Skupin is the only returning player not currrently being talked about in voting out, but he needs to stop hurting himself.

The immunity/reward challenge looked like Tandang was going to run away with it, but kalabaw came from a last at the beginning to winning by just a few seconds.  Tandang finishes second and Matsing wasn't even close.  Russell didn't listen to his tribe and they suffer because of it and it could cost him the game at TC.  The only thing he has going for him is his physical strength, but he isn't a team player, so I think he may go.  Tnadang performed very well as a unit and that will help them in the long run.  Kalabaw did great except for the two girls who fell behind early, but the time was almost made up in the water, they caught up with Matsing and then the final part of the challenge they had the right people doing the puzzle.

After the challenge Zane tried to outwit everyone by saying vote for me and hoped they would say no we need to keep him and vote out Russell, but that didn't happen.  So the move he thought was great was just plain stupid.  Russell did deserve to go and he would have had Zane kept his mouth shut.  After seeing how much facetime he got in the beginning of the episode, it should have been pretty obvious he was going.  At TC Zane made the case that Russell should go because he is too good of a player.  He also confused Jeff with his onion talk, but it was too late.  Denise made some good comments too. In the end Russell lives for another day and zane hits the road.

--- Commentary after the episode is over ---

My overall impression is good for the season but I wished Zane would have stuck around, because he was a good character, but not a great player, like he thought he was.  I think Tandang is working together the best with Lisa being on the outs.  Here are my quick thoughts on each of the players:

Mike Skupin - I loved him in season 2 and other than hurting himself so much this time, I still like him and would love to see him go far.  I think he is playing a smart game by not being a leader in all areas and going with the flow of the tribe.

Russell Swan - Not a big fan of his.  He is lucky to still be in the game and he better change fast or Matsing will be back at TC next week and he will be gone.

Jonathan Penner - Fun character but is not playing a smart game.  Spending so much time looking for the idol in the first few days instead of bonding with his tribe will cost him.  He better hope Jeff's knee doesn't hold up or he may be the first to go in his tribe.

Zane - Fun to watch, but not too smart in the game.  Thought he was controlling the show and ultimately he was, because his poor move got him voted out.  Maybe they'll invite him back to see if he does better.

Roxy - I think she has a good head on her shoulders and that is probably the military background.  I think she will go far in her tribe.

RC - She started out off the bat playing the game.  Forming an alliance immediately and we'll see if her game goes beyond that.  Other than that we didn't get to see much of her.

Pete - He had the funny line about Skupin and the fire, but so far not too much to go on other than he is in the alliance.

Malcolm - He is a great player and he is using his smarts to get him in a better position.  I think he will go far.

Lisa - Sadly she isn't fitting in.  Only Skupin has said he recognizes her, but the other girls don't trust her.  Maybe she is trying too hard to fit in, when around them, and then not bonding by staying back at camp.  I don't expect her to last long.  She better hope her tribe keeps winning and there is a swap to another tribe.

Katie - I didn't get much of a feel for her, as she didn't get a lot of face time.

Jeff K - If his knee can hold up, he may do ok.  He did pretty well in the challenge, so I think it is not too bad.

Denise - Being a theropist, she knows how to talk to people and get them to tell her things.  If she doesn't go early due to her tribe, i think her and Malcolm could be a good pair.

Dawson - We didn't see too much of her this episode either, but she did recognize Jeff K.  Too early to tell about her.

Dana - She is an interesting character.  I hope she sticks around for a bit.

Carter - This may be our winner, I don't think we heard from him at all this episode.  Probably not, but you never know.

Artis - Another one that we didn't hear from a lot.  Not sure what to make of him yet.

Angie - Seems to have a good thought process on things and if she gets in a good alliance, may do well.

Abi-Maria - RC came right up to her and the alliance was formed.  Didn't see much of her after that.  She could go far, if the alliance stays together.

So overall a good first episode, so until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

After a couple seasons off...

I took a couple seasons off of blogging about the show, but life has settle down some and I am going to try to blog about this season once again.  The premiere is tomorrow night and is 1.5 hours long.  I'm excited.  If you want to discuss Survivor, I created a group on FB.

http://www.facebook.com/groups/survivorpurist/

Until tomorrow night... the Tribe has spoken.