Survivor Philippines: Episode 10 - Social Grace of a Mack Truck!

Abby and Pete discuss how they lost control and Abby couldn't understand why Tandang wasn't strong.  She is obviously not a rocket scientist.  Pete said they fell asleep at the wheel, but I think they just expected the speed bumps to stick with them instead of slowing them down.  Skupin says that he is going to control this game for himself, as much as possible.  He and Denise say they should all be final 6, then the best ones win.

Lisa and Abby talk and Lisa basically says she doesn't trust Abby and it will be hard to stick with them.  She would rather be sixth and feel good.

At the reward challenge it was a race to get three of your teams discs flipped over all at once before the next team.  It was close but on the last round Skupin pulled an Abby an flipped the wrong one giving the red team the win.  Carter, Pete, Abby and Malcolm get a spa reward and the rest go back to camp.

The reward was very nice, lots of nice food and a bath and massages, but not to carry on like Abby, that's all there is to say about that, since they didn't talk about strategy.  When they arrived back at camp, Abby wouldn't shut up about how great the reward was.  They asked Carter what he liked and Abby didn't even let him finish.  Then to top it all off Abby said she is done cooking for the rest of the time there.  She expects to eat, but not cook.  Denise is looking forward to sending her home.

Skupin and Malcolm talk final 4 and Malcolm was determined to make a final 4 that day.  Skupin talks to Lisa but she isn't sure and says she prefers Penner, but Penner won't commit when they talk.  So Malcolm, Lisa, Denise and Skupin agree final 4 and it will be interesting to see if it lasts.  There will be two groups of two when they get to the final four.

At the immunity challenge it was challenging, but the two they want out didn't get past round 1 so it didn't matter.  It came down to Skupin, Carter and Denise and Skupin had a lead until the last knot, but Carter caught up and finished the challenge first.

What they should do is split the vote, just in case Abby gets a wild hare to save Pete and that is exactly what Penner suggests.  Pete and Abby do their best to get someone to flip and take out Malcolm.  Skupin was the only one that considered it, but I think the combination of the plan coming out to Malcolm and the beating the Abby took at Tribal Council convinced him to stay with his word to Malcolm.

At Trbial Council Abby got hit by that Mack Truck.  Even Jeff gave her a earful.  Denise is a great communicator and she tried her best to help Abby understand, but Abby couldn't keep her mouth shut.  It will be a mistake to take Denise to the final 3 or 2, because she could easily win.

In the preview it shows Penner upset at Lisa, because she made the final 4 plan with Malcolm, but that is entirely Penner's fault.  Abby says she is going to fight.  Even if she can pull out an immunity, her chances are slim.  If the final 4 of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa holds strong, then Penner's only option is to align with Carter and Abby, but that still leaves them down one.  Can he guilt Lisa to flipping, maybe.  Here is how I see the game playing out from here:

Abby will go home next unless she wins immunity.  With the final 6, that is the perfect time to blindside Malcolm, but will Skupin and Lisa break their word to do it.  I don't think they want to be sitting next to either Malcolm or Denise at the final 2 or 3.  My gut says that Lisa and Skupin will stay with the alliance and they will target either Penner or Carter next, depending on immunity wins.  When they get down to five it only makes sense to take out the last person, leaving the final 4.  The reason is at that point it will be tough to get Malcolm out, but they could take out Denise, if Malcolm doesn't give her the idol or she doesn't win immunity.  But that is risky too, because at least if the final 4 stay together, then Malcolm can only use his idol to reach final 3 and then it comes down to a tie, unless Malcolm decides to betray Denise.

There are still a lot of variables and really at 7 is the best time to make the move.  Penner, Skupin, Carter and Abby blindside Malcolm.  Then they take out Denise, if she doesn't win immunity.  Then Skupin, Lisa and Abby blindside Penner or Carter and ride to the final 3.  That is Skupin's (and Lisa's) best play.

Penner and Carter have the toughest road, but if they can get Skupin to join them, then they could have a shot.  Malcolm and Denise would be tough to beat and I think the only person that may legitimately have a chance to beat them might be Lisa, but I doubt it.

What would be interesting is to have a Skupin, Penner and Abby final 3.  would they give Abby the win over the two returning players or who would win between Penner and Skupin.

So many possibilities to ponder before next week, so until then... the Tribe has spoken.