Survivor Philippines - Episode 11 - Sunny Side Up and Sucking Eggs

After tribal council Abby is obviously still upset and the next morning Skupin and her have a talk.  Denise and Penner overheard and thought it was funny.  Then Malcolm and Abby go to tree mail and there are envelopes and Abby's first thought was it is letters from home and starts to cry again.  Malcolm comforts here and then she realizes it is for the Survivor Auction.  Abby goes in with a plan and that is to save the money and use it for something that will help her out.

At the auction there were lots of good food that several won.  Carter's first successful bid gave him a choice between food for him or rice and beans for the tribe.  He did the honorable thing and chose the rice and beans.  The second to last item was what Abby was waiting for, the advantage in the next challenge and immediately bid all her money, thus winning the advantage, which allowed her a 1 and 3 shot of winning it.  The final item Carter won again and it again was for the tribe.  They had 60 seconds to all partake in the food.

Back at camp everyone was happy and then Abby and Penner start talking and Abby expects Penner to apologize for how he and the others treated her at the TC.  He didn't, other than saying he was sorry it was her turn.  I thought he handled the situation very well.  Then Abby goes off and reads note.  She adds an element to it by saying she as found another immunity idol, when she was talking to Malcolm and then at the challenge she does a pretty wise thing and says there are two parts to the note.  The first part related to the challenge and the unsaid part was eluding to an idol.  Of course the second part wasn't really there, but she knew Jeff wouldn't play along if she said it.  So she played it well.

At the challenge, there was a wrinkle where at the start of each round everyone answered a question and if they got in wrong they had to carry 5% of their body weight with them.  Round one Lisa and Denise got it wrong.  4 of the 5 would advance and Lisa was the one that didn't.  The next round, Denise, Carter and Skupin all missed the question and added 5% weight, making Denise have 10% of her weight.  The top two advanced and Carter and Penner advanced.  Carter missed the question before the final round, so he was wear 10% now.  The final part of the challenge was different in that they had to untie knots where the previous two rounds they were clipped to a rope maze.  Abby took a quick lead and Carter was right behind her, but in the end, Abby won the immunity.

With Abby safe at TC, Penner was the next obvious choice of the final 4 alliance of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa.  Lisa was conflicted and told Penner what was happening and he was flabbergasted, but he knew that Lisa would stick to her word.  He talked to Skupin and it seemed like he may flip and I think he would have if Lisa would have too.  And at TC it came down to Penner and Denise and Penner got voted out 4-3.

The preview for next week shows it is the family challenge and Malcolm's brother talks to much and Malcolm worries it may hurt his game.

So with six remaining, will the final four alliance stand or will Skupin and Lisa switch to Carter and Abby.

I think Denise and Malcolm have the best shot of winning, if they are in the finals.  Which of the two will win is tough, but Denise is a better talker, so she may have an edge.

I think Skupin has a descent shot if he makes it.

Carter could pull out a win, but it depends who he is sitting with.  I think he beats Abby or Lisa, but I'm not sure he beats Skupin.

If Lisa makes it to the end, then I can see Penner bringing up the Facts of Life part of her past and I think the jury would hold that against her, which I think is stupid, but it is what it is.  Also while she has played a pretty honest game, she hasn't played a great game.  It really depends on who she is with.  She beats Abby, but I'm not sure about anyone else.

I don't think Abby has a chance to win, but then again if she makes it to the end and it is not by luck, then she may win.  Of course it depends on who she is sitting with.

The question still remains is it a final 2 or 3.  Either a final 2 with 9 jurors or a final 3 with 8.  I suppose there is the chance they may do something crazy and do a final 4 with 7 juror, but I doubt it.  My guess is it will be a final 3 and there will be only 3 more episodes remaining.  Next week, the following Wednesday and then the finale on Sunday.    Either way it should be fun, so until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 10 - Social Grace of a Mack Truck!

Abby and Pete discuss how they lost control and Abby couldn't understand why Tandang wasn't strong.  She is obviously not a rocket scientist.  Pete said they fell asleep at the wheel, but I think they just expected the speed bumps to stick with them instead of slowing them down.  Skupin says that he is going to control this game for himself, as much as possible.  He and Denise say they should all be final 6, then the best ones win.

Lisa and Abby talk and Lisa basically says she doesn't trust Abby and it will be hard to stick with them.  She would rather be sixth and feel good.

At the reward challenge it was a race to get three of your teams discs flipped over all at once before the next team.  It was close but on the last round Skupin pulled an Abby an flipped the wrong one giving the red team the win.  Carter, Pete, Abby and Malcolm get a spa reward and the rest go back to camp.

The reward was very nice, lots of nice food and a bath and massages, but not to carry on like Abby, that's all there is to say about that, since they didn't talk about strategy.  When they arrived back at camp, Abby wouldn't shut up about how great the reward was.  They asked Carter what he liked and Abby didn't even let him finish.  Then to top it all off Abby said she is done cooking for the rest of the time there.  She expects to eat, but not cook.  Denise is looking forward to sending her home.

Skupin and Malcolm talk final 4 and Malcolm was determined to make a final 4 that day.  Skupin talks to Lisa but she isn't sure and says she prefers Penner, but Penner won't commit when they talk.  So Malcolm, Lisa, Denise and Skupin agree final 4 and it will be interesting to see if it lasts.  There will be two groups of two when they get to the final four.

At the immunity challenge it was challenging, but the two they want out didn't get past round 1 so it didn't matter.  It came down to Skupin, Carter and Denise and Skupin had a lead until the last knot, but Carter caught up and finished the challenge first.

What they should do is split the vote, just in case Abby gets a wild hare to save Pete and that is exactly what Penner suggests.  Pete and Abby do their best to get someone to flip and take out Malcolm.  Skupin was the only one that considered it, but I think the combination of the plan coming out to Malcolm and the beating the Abby took at Tribal Council convinced him to stay with his word to Malcolm.

At Trbial Council Abby got hit by that Mack Truck.  Even Jeff gave her a earful.  Denise is a great communicator and she tried her best to help Abby understand, but Abby couldn't keep her mouth shut.  It will be a mistake to take Denise to the final 3 or 2, because she could easily win.

In the preview it shows Penner upset at Lisa, because she made the final 4 plan with Malcolm, but that is entirely Penner's fault.  Abby says she is going to fight.  Even if she can pull out an immunity, her chances are slim.  If the final 4 of Malcolm, Denise, Skupin and Lisa holds strong, then Penner's only option is to align with Carter and Abby, but that still leaves them down one.  Can he guilt Lisa to flipping, maybe.  Here is how I see the game playing out from here:

Abby will go home next unless she wins immunity.  With the final 6, that is the perfect time to blindside Malcolm, but will Skupin and Lisa break their word to do it.  I don't think they want to be sitting next to either Malcolm or Denise at the final 2 or 3.  My gut says that Lisa and Skupin will stay with the alliance and they will target either Penner or Carter next, depending on immunity wins.  When they get down to five it only makes sense to take out the last person, leaving the final 4.  The reason is at that point it will be tough to get Malcolm out, but they could take out Denise, if Malcolm doesn't give her the idol or she doesn't win immunity.  But that is risky too, because at least if the final 4 stay together, then Malcolm can only use his idol to reach final 3 and then it comes down to a tie, unless Malcolm decides to betray Denise.

There are still a lot of variables and really at 7 is the best time to make the move.  Penner, Skupin, Carter and Abby blindside Malcolm.  Then they take out Denise, if she doesn't win immunity.  Then Skupin, Lisa and Abby blindside Penner or Carter and ride to the final 3.  That is Skupin's (and Lisa's) best play.

Penner and Carter have the toughest road, but if they can get Skupin to join them, then they could have a shot.  Malcolm and Denise would be tough to beat and I think the only person that may legitimately have a chance to beat them might be Lisa, but I doubt it.

What would be interesting is to have a Skupin, Penner and Abby final 3.  would they give Abby the win over the two returning players or who would win between Penner and Skupin.

So many possibilities to ponder before next week, so until then... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 9 - The Big Mouth Sinks the Ship

Lisa starts off the show fighting her inner demons and beating herself up over her move.  Penner does an amazing job of connecting with her and comforting her.  Many of the other players also are very kind to her, but she still wants to stay loyal to Tandang.

At the reward challenge, it works out that Tandang, minus Abby who sat out, got put together and the rest got put together into two teams.  Skupin and Penner are the first to go and Skupin gets a quick lead, but not by much.  When they get to the part where they are to search for the bags of balls, Penner decides to stay and uncover all 4 bags so the rest of his team would just have to pick them up and go.  The strategy pays off and Penner's team wins.

The reward was awesome. They got to deliver toys and schools supplies to a nearby village and it touched all of them.  Malcolm taught kids in Malaysia for a year and then left that to be a bar tender.  This experience made him wonder why he left that.  Penner had a great time playing with the kids.

At camp, Pete, Artis and Abby talk to Lisa about keeping Tandang strong and going forward, but Abby opens her mouth and calls Lisa naive and gullible.  Of course that doesn't make Lisa happy nor Pete.

At the immunity challenge, each member had to get six balls to balance on a paddle, one at a time by rolling it up the handle in getting into one of the six marked places.  Skupin and Pete both were neck and neck through the first 4 balls and no one else was even close.  Skupin got his fifth ball and Pete started to panic and lost two of the balls he already had.  Skupin won easily from there.

Back at camp, Penner talks to Lisa about switching to vote with them and then he talks to Skupin.  Mike is on board with it but wants to confirm with Lisa, since they have been strong since the beginning.  It still doesn't seem that Lisa wants to switch.  Meanwhile Malcolm, Denise and Carter agree that it has to be Artis, because they figured Abby may give Pete the idol and she wouldn't have given it to Artis.

At Tribal Council, Lisa starts off with a long speech on how she tried to play the game but basically got poop blown back at her.  She did say that she received grace from many people when she returned and Abby asked if she gave her grace.  Lisa responded that the non-Tandang members gave more grace than the Tandang members.  Then Abby sealed their fate by saying that she was worried most about Lisa switching and Lisa replied that maybe it is time for a decision.  Of course that decision was made and Artis went home in a 5-4 vote.  Lisa stayed true but Skupin switched.

The previews show that Lisa wants to switch now but Abby pulls the guilt trip on her and breakups have never been easy for Lisa.  Also Mike talks to Lisa and has a plan for final four.  What could that plan be?

If I'm Skupin, I would take Lisa, Penner and Carter.  I say that because if they get Penner and Carter out and stick with Denise and Malcolm, that would put a tie at the final 4.  The bigger problem is the idols.  My guess is Abby won't give it up to Pete, especially since it appears the numbers won't be in their favor, so as long as Pete doesn't win immunity, my guess is he will be the next to go.  If Pete wins immunity, they will target Abby, who of course has the idol and would probably play it.  That means the 5 others need to split the vote, but that also means one of them would go home.  Who would that be?  If I was playing it, Skupin, Penner and Lisa should agree to split the votes with Denise and Malcolm voting Abby and thinking Carter will vote Abby too, Abby and Pete probably voting Lisa or Penner and Penner, Lisa, Skupin and Carter should vote out Malcolm and blindside him, since he has the idol.  The problem with that is Lisa probably wouldn't go for it, since Malcolm was so nice to her about calling him out on the idol, so it may have to be Denise.

If Pete or Abby don't win immunity then you split the vote 3-3 between them and it doesn't matter which one plays the idol, the other will go home and the idol will be out.

After that, Skupin, Lisa, Penner and Carter should team up and get out Denise and Malcolm, although, Penner and Carter could stick together, I don't think they are as tight as Denise and Malcolm.

There are lots of possibilities and at this point anything can happen.  What we don't know for sure is if it will be a final 2 or final 3.  It will either be a final 2 with 9 jury members or final 3 with 8 jury members, neither of which have been done before.

So until next week... the Tribe has spoken.

Survivor Philippines: Episode 8 - The Facts of Life

At the start of the show, Penner is of course worried that he is next and he is correct and talks to Skupin and says that he has to win immunity and then Skupin is on the block.  Lisa and Skupin are talking and Lisa spills the beans that Malcolm has the idol and she talks about getting rid of him on a blindside at some point.

At the reward challenge the divide them into two teams and it is a race into the water to release puzzle pieces and then dig for a key before assembling the puzzle.  The yellow team starts off fast and takes an early lead since the blue team sent Abby first and she wasn't too fast.  Carter catches up to a slow Lisa to give the blue team the lead but ultimately Denise takes the lead back when Skupin has trouble getting the last set of puzzle pieces.  Penner makes short work of the puzzle and the yellow team wins the reward.  Penner of course talks about turning on Pete and taking him out.  Lisa likes the plan but thinks it is better to stay with the old Tandang tribe.

Back at camp, Pete and Abby are talking and Pete says after Penner goes, he would like to target Jeff and keep Skupin around.

At the Immunity Challenge, the top three players to untie their puzzle pieces advance to the next round.  Pete, Penner and Jeff are those three.  The next round is assembling the puzzle and Pete and Jeff get off to a quick lead over Penner, but Penner then starts to get it and makes a huge run and ends up winning immunity. Of course Penner has a respectable celebration.

Back at Camp, Lisa goes into game mode again and tells Pete about Malcolm's idol and says that they need to blindside him.  Pete agrees and that was the plan until Malcolm and Pete start talking and Pete confronts Malcolm about the idol.  Malcolm denies it and Pete throws Lisa under the bus.  Meanwhile Penner gets a group to go after Pete and Pete now targets Jeff.

At Tribal Council, the fun happens.  Jeff starts talking to Skupin asking if he was worried when Penner won immunity and of course he said yes.  The conversation steers towards Malcolm when Lisa confesses that she threw Malcolm under the bus.  The talk continues about how Malcolm was a target and then he pulls out the idol and says he is playing it and someone will be getting the brunt of it (smart play on his part).  Jeff then asks if anyone else has an idol they want to tell everyone about and Abby opens her mouth and then shows everyone (that was dumb in my opinion).  She says the idol will be used to keep the alliance strong.  Lisa points out that she played both sides but never left the original alliance and that is why she told them about Malcolm's idol.  Penner then rallies the troops to exercise his plan.

After they all vote and Jeff comes back and asks if anyone wants to play their idol, no one does.  Malcolm was very smart here too, as he put enough fear that he will use it that they don't vote for him, then holds onto the idol.  In the end Abby gets one vote, Jeff gets 5 and Pete gets 4.

Jeff's closing statement as classic about how he has made so much money at baseball but the 1 million from this game was something he really wanted (actually $600,000 after Obama takes his share) and he is not happy.  I think he is just pissed the game didn't go his way, not that he is being a sore loser.

In the preview it shows Lisa playing again and thinking of now switching away from the original Tandang alliance.  Will it happen?  We will find out.

So now that all hell has broken loose in all the alliances.  Pete was very close to going home, Abby was an idiot and Malcolm played it well, but now is a target just because of the idol, it leaves the final 9 people in an interesting place.  I don't think any alliance is safe, other than Malcolm and Denise and Peter, Abby and Artis, and that leave 4 people that can go where is best for them.  Malcolm will probably have a difficult time trusting Lisa now, but if he gets Penner and Skupin on his side and string Lisa or Carter along, then they can take Pete out next.  it is going to be a fun episode next week and obviously with this week's developments, you can pretty much disregard my prediction last week.  So until then... the Tribe has spoken.